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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1236 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF WEST TEXAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of   
   northern Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail is the   
   primary threat.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the central   
   Plains on Sunday. Lee troughing is forecast along the High Plains   
   during the day Sunday with a weak cyclone likely to develop near the   
   Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Monday. A warm front will only slowly   
   advance north across Texas during the day, but will advance north   
   more aggressively after 00Z.   
      
   ...West Texas into north-central Texas...   
   As the mid-level trough advances east on Sunday, a low-level jet   
   will strengthen across Texas. This will lead to increasing   
   isentropic ascent and thunderstorm coverage during the day. Moderate   
   instability, paired with moderate shear and steepening mid-level   
   lapse rates may result in an environment which supports isolated   
   large hail from a few elevated supercells. However, stronger storm   
   coverage may be somewhat limited during the day.   
   Greater coverage is anticipated Sunday night as stronger height   
   falls overspread the southern Plains. Isolated large hail will be   
   the primary threat, but a few damaging wind gusts may be possible if   
   storms grow upscale and move into the surface-based warm sector late   
   in the period as it starts to move northward more quickly.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 11/22/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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