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   ACUS11 KWNS 220535   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 220534=20   
   KYZ000-TNZ000-220730-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2217   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of southwest KY into far northern TN   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 220534Z - 220730Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Localized strong/damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are   
   possible late tonight.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is moving across far western KY   
   to near the TN state line late this evening. While instability is   
   modest at best (with MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg), ascent attendant to   
   a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the Ohio Valley may help to   
   sustain this cluster as it moves eastward late tonight. Midlevel   
   flow and deep-layer shear (as sampled by the KPAH and KHPX VWPs) are   
   rather strong, which could allow for convection to remain somewhat   
   organized as it moves eastward. Mostly unidirectional wind profiles   
   may continue to favor a quasi-linear mode, though a transient   
   embedded supercell or two (as recently noted near the KY/TN border)   
   cannot be ruled out.=20   
      
   Weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy will tend to limit the   
   magnitude of the severe threat. However, locally gusty/damaging   
   winds will be possible into the early overnight, and a brief/weak   
   tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent supercell   
   structures, with 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 in place per the KHPX   
   VWP.   
      
   ..Dean/Smith.. 11/22/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!9HPfLwmCio8rB7lwbBnZMNq5-OmXFdF-aOFjsWN-GWNOu3W5xKIPtV0qyGoCrZoU8yDjwHFoJ=   
   mQWGsHuZD-bdy5lPDU$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...   
      
   LAT...LON   37578760 37678645 37448545 36438564 36158607 36428854   
               36878781 37578760=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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