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   ACUS01 KWNS 220044   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 220042   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0642 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   Valid 220100Z - 221200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM THE   
   OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across parts of   
   northern Mississippi and Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. Small to   
   marginal hail or gusty winds may occur.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue moving out of MO and   
   across the OH Valley tonight, with cooling aloft eventually   
   extending southward across the TN Valley. Midlevel winds of 50-70 kt   
   will be present within the speed max, from the OH River into TN,   
   resulting in elongated hodographs.   
      
   At the surface, low pressure will translate eastward along a   
   quasi-stationary boundary extending from southern MO/IL into central   
   KY, though this front will sink south late.   
      
   Minimal lift will exist along this boundary, but the ejecting   
   midlevel wave atop the warm sector with 60s F dewpoints may result   
   in isolated cells, some possibly reaching severe limits with   
   marginal hail over northern areas, and/or wind elsewhere. Winds   
   around 850 mb will be quite veered, with mostly straightline   
   hodographs, favoring cells.   
      
   00Z soundings confirm generally strong deep-layer shear but poor   
   lapse rates aloft and weak instability. However, areas of lift   
   overnight may still result in isolated strong storms within the   
   marginal area.   
      
   ..Jewell.. 11/22/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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