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   FOUS30 KWBC 220004   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   704 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...   
      
   Showers and thunderstorms remain possible for border areas of AZ   
   and CA with MX to the east-northeast of an incoming upper level=20   
   disturbance. Moisture amounts, considering the low 1000-500 hPa=20   
   thickness values of 5490-5550 meters, are sufficient for=20   
   atmospheric saturation. The problem so far has been the=20   
   instability, which is very near 100 J/kg. When combined with the=20   
   precipitable water values of ~1", hourly amounts in the 0.4" remain   
   possible overnight, with additional local totals of 1-2" through   
   12z. The mesoscale guidance is keying in on the southernmost=20   
   portion of the Peninsular Ranges east of San Diego for local=20   
   amounts in the 2" range, but this is only one spot. Given the=20   
   above, downgraded the Slight Risk to a Marginal Risk for the=20   
   overnight period (Saturday 01-12z). Any heavy rainfall related=20   
   issues are expected to be isolated.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Churchill/Campbell   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...   
      
   ...20z Update...   
      
   Maintained the inherited Slight Risk with only minor adjustments   
   made, primarily to shift the axis slightly south to southwest and   
   tighten the gradient along the north and south. This reflects the   
   latest trends in QPF, which are fairly tightly clustered for this   
   time range (relatively high spatial confidence). This is somewhat   
   concerning, as this brings the forecast axis of QPF even more into   
   alignment with areas that realized heavy rainfall in prior days.   
   However, the categorical outlook is still held at a Slight Risk   
   due to a combination of meaningful time between the prior event   
   and the upcoming event (three full days inbetween should allow for   
   soil moisture and streamflow recovery) and uncertainty with regard   
   to the amount of training and resultant QPF (with most of the new   
   guidance suggesting localized 2-3" totals, while some solutions,   
   including the downscaled 12z ECMWF, depict localized totals of up   
   to 4-5").   
      
   Churchill   
      
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
      
   The low pressure system that brought heavy rainfall for the West   
   Coast during the Day 1 period will be exiting into the Southern   
   Plains and the warm, moist air will support scattered to widespread   
   heavy rainfall. There is an increasing signal that this setup could   
   be a significant event, especially for north-central portions of   
   Texas and into southern Oklahoma where a couple of solutions are   
   suggesting a narrow swath of 4 to 6 inches possible. A Slight Risk   
   for excessive rainfall is in effect for for much of north-   
   central/northeast Texas and south/east Oklahoma. A broader Marginal   
   Risk spans from the Big Bend vicinity to southwest Missouri and   
   western Arkansas. This part of the country will continue to be   
   monitored for a possible upgrade to a Moderate with future updates.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9FbgfYsXc3XZX3Ozvjhrab6DYzMn0ImHBsLzCQp2jVcw=   
   lfOynMpwZXSUWpsmfrdbS67K5fzfvuXmK-8GUPZ_sUxA598$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9FbgfYsXc3XZX3Ozvjhrab6DYzMn0ImHBsLzCQp2jVcw=   
   lfOynMpwZXSUWpsmfrdbS67K5fzfvuXmK-8GUPZ_y8hAFv4$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9FbgfYsXc3XZX3Ozvjhrab6DYzMn0ImHBsLzCQp2jVcw=   
   lfOynMpwZXSUWpsmfrdbS67K5fzfvuXmK-8GUPZ_wecD_t8$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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