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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0142 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   Valid 212000Z - 221200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   MS/AL/TN/KY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight   
   across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and northern   
   Alabama and possibly southern Kentucky.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
   The Marginal Risk was trimmed slightly in northern/central MS, where   
   a combination of relatively weaker large-scale forcing for ascent   
   and poor deep-layer lapse rates/modest buoyancy (see SHV 18Z   
   sounding) should limit the severe-risk compared to areas farther   
   north tonight. Elsewhere, widely scattered thunderstorms are   
   evolving along a southeastward-moving cold front in southeast TX.   
   PBL destabilization ahead of the front has yielded moderate   
   surface-based buoyancy (per CRP 18Z sounding). While several warm   
   layers aloft and modest deep-layer shear (around 30 kt of effective   
   shear) should limit updraft intensity, a strong storm or two capable   
   of producing gusty winds cannot be entirely ruled out into this   
   evening.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 11/21/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025/   
      
   ...MS/AL/TN/KY...   
   A strengthening of deep-layer flow will occur regionally in tandem   
   with the eastward progression of a low-amplitude shortwave trough   
   from the Lower Missouri Valley toward the Lower Ohio River Valley   
   tonight, with height falls remaining limited south of the Tennessee   
   Valley.   
      
   The more organized/sustained scattered thunderstorms this afternoon   
   will probably remain focused within the warm conveyor from   
   south-central Mississippi into Alabama. On the south-southwest   
   periphery of these storms, there will be a gradual northeastward   
   expansion of the effective warm sector while destabilization will   
   still remain weaker with eastward extent. Mid-level lapse rates are   
   weak, suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,   
   strong deep-layer shear and moderately strong low-level shear/SRH,   
   particularly within the aforementioned corridor, could support a   
   couple of rotating storms capable of a tornado or damaging wind.   
      
   The primary surface cold front will move into this region tonight,   
   with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to uptick   
   this evening across the Mid-South including western Tennessee and   
   northern Mississippi. Low-level winds are expected to veer by this   
   time, reducing low-level shear/SRH. Nevertheless, a low risk of a   
   tornado and/or gusty winds will exist.   
      
   $$   
      
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