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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0128 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF   
   WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of   
   northern Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail is the   
   primary threat.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS on Day   
   3/Sunday as multiple mid-level troughs progress across the   
   Northeast, the Plains states, and the Pacific Northwest,   
   respectively. At the surface, high pressure and static stability   
   will become established east of the MS River to the East Coast, and   
   over much of the Interior West, limiting thunderstorm potential over   
   these regions. However, the amplification of the central U.S.   
   mid-level trough will encourage surface lee troughing and subsequent   
   southerly moisture return across portions of the central and   
   southern Plains, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are   
   likely. Strong flow aloft over TX will overspread a moist axis,   
   where adequate coinciding buoyancy and vertical wind shear will   
   support an isolated severe threat. Otherwise, a few lightning   
   flashes are possible along the Pacific Northwest coastline with the   
   passage of a mid-level trough and accompanying cooler temperatures   
   aloft.   
      
   ...Portions of southwestern into central TX...   
   As the mid-level trough overspreads TX through the period, a   
   southerly low-level jet will develop, particularly after 00Z, when   
   850 mb southerly flow will exceed 35 kts. A relatively stable   
   boundary layer will remain in place Sunday through Sunday night.   
   However, atop this layer, seasonably rich moisture around 850 mb,   
   beneath 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield 1000-1500   
   J/kg of MUCAPE, which is adequate for supporting strong but elevated   
   thunderstorms. From late afternoon into the overnight hours,   
   increased isentropic lift above the stable boundary layer, driven by   
   the approaching mid-level trough, will promote an increase in   
   thunderstorms through the evening over western and central TX. The   
   southerly 35 kt low-level jet, overspread by 50-70 kt mid-level   
   southwesterlies from the upper trough, will yield elongated   
   hodographs and up to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This shear, and   
   aforementioned MUCAPE, will support the potential for elevated   
   supercells late Sunday afternoon and overnight, with severe hail   
   possible.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 11/21/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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