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   FOUS11 KWBC 211920   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   220 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   Valid 00Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 00Z Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
      
   ...Southern Rockies...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   The upper-low that produced heavy mountain snow in the peaks of the   
   southern California mountains will make its way through northern   
   Mexico Saturday night. Healthy subtropical moisture will be   
   directed at the Southern Rockies at the same time as diffluent flow   
   aloft supports upper-level ascent atop the atmosphere. Add in the   
   favorable upslope component into mountain ranges such as the Gila   
   Mountains, the San Juans, and the Sangre De Cristo, and this   
   upper-low will produce snow in the Southern Rockies. Snow begins in   
   the AZ/NM mountains Saturday evening, then begins in far northern   
   NM and the CO Rockies on Sunday. Some lingering snow showers may   
   persist in the remote peaks of the Southern Rockies through early   
   Monday morning before concluding Monday afternoon.   
      
   Given the lack of a cold antecedent air-mass, snow levels will   
   struggle to dip much lower than 7,000ft. In terms of where the   
   heaviest snowfall is most likely to occur, elevations above 9,000ft   
   in the Mogollon Rim and Gila Mountains are most likely, while   
   heavy snow will be mostly confined to the more remote elevations   
   above 10,000ft in the San Juans and Sangre De Cristo. WPC   
   probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow primarily on Day 3   
   (Sunday) are >50% above about 11,000ft in the more remote/higher   
   ridge lines of the San Juans and especially the Sangre De Cristo   
   range. WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (20-50%) for   
   storm total snowfall >8" for all the mountains and elevations   
   referenced, although the higher end of those probabilities applies   
   mostly to the highest and most remote sections of the Southern   
   Rockies.   
      
   ...Pacific Northwest & Northern Rockies...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   A Pacific disturbance embedded within uasi-zonal flow will usher in   
   a progressive, but potent, frontal system into WA/OR/ID and   
   northwestern MT Sunday. As the cold front traverses the Pacific   
   Northwest, snow levels around 5000-6000ft Sunday afternoon will   
   drop to as low as 2,000ft on the windward side of the Cascades by   
   early Monday as precipitation begins to taper off. WPC   
   probabilities for >4" of snow do range between 30-50% in both   
   Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes, with potentially upwards of 6"   
   possible. Snow will also spread across northern ID into   
   northwestern MT late Sunday and through Monday as moisture   
   associated with the Pacific system moves through. Additional heavy   
   snowfall may ensue along the Lewis Range on Monday as strengthening   
   high pressure to the north gives rise to strengthening easterly   
   upslope flow. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances   
   (50-80%) for snowfall totals >8" in the Lewis Range through Monday   
   afternoon. The highest elevations of the Lewis Range may top 12"   
   in spots through Monday afternoon.   
      
   ...Northeast...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   A clipper system rotating beneath the base of an broad upper-low   
   over Quebec will push quickly through northern NY/New England   
   Sunday evening and exit the to the east by Monday morning. Guidance   
   shows some uncertainty on the strength of the approaching clipper   
   system with the GFS/CMC showing a more amplified solution while the   
   ECMWF/UKMET camp is less amplified and features less QPF. Even   
   taking the average of these solutions, it would lead to some minor   
   snowfall accumulations (1-4") across the Tug Hill, the   
   Adirondacks, and both the Green and White Mountains. At this   
   moment, WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (20-50%) for   
   snowfall totals >4" in these ranges with elevations above 2,000ft   
   most favored for accumulating snowfall.   
      
      
   The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than   
   10 percent.   
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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