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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1127 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the   
   southern Plains and Southeast tomorrow (Saturday), though severe   
   thunderstorm potential appears low.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A broad mid-level trough, with multiple embedded impulses, will   
   progress across the eastern U.S. as upper ridging builds over the   
   Plains, and an upper low overspreads the Southwest tomorrow   
   (Saturday). With the evolution of this upper pattern, surface high   
   pressure and accompanying cooler, stable air will overspread most of   
   the central and northern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential.   
   From southeast TX to the coastal Carolinas, widely scattered   
   thunderstorm development is possible ahead of a surface cold front,   
   which will be ushered southeast by the aforementioned mid-level   
   trough, toward a seasonably moist low-level airmass. Thunderstorms   
   will also be possible across portions of the Desert Southwest into   
   western TX, beneath the progression of the upper low, which may   
   evolve into an upper wave through Saturday. Cooler temperatures   
   aloft will promote buoyancy (albeit scant) for thunderstorm   
   development.   
      
   ...Southeast VA into central and eastern NC...   
   In roughly the 18-00Z period, isolated to widespread scattered   
   thunderstorm development is possible ahead of the cold front, aided   
   further by upper support with an overspreading embedded mid-level   
   impulse. Overlapping 60-70 kt 500 mb westerly flow atop 25+ kt   
   west-southwesterly 850 mb winds will yield elongated, straight   
   hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. Through the day,   
   diurnal heating will support upper 60s/mid 70s F surface   
   temperatures amid 60+ F dewpoints. These low-level thermodynamic   
   conditions should yield around 500 J/kg MLCAPE via tall/thin   
   buoyancy profiles given modest tropospheric lapse rates. While gusty   
   conditions and perhaps some hail may accompany the stronger storms,   
   organized severe wind/hail seems unlikely, with severe probabilities   
   withheld for now.   
      
   ...Southern and central AZ into southwestern NM...   
   A nearly vertically stacked upper low (from roughly 850 mb on up)   
   will overspread AZ and NM through the period. A belt of stronger,   
   mostly unidirectional flow in the 850-500 mb layer will pivot around   
   the low and overspread portions of southern into central AZ and   
   southwestern NM in the 00-12Z time frame. This flow, resulting in   
   elongated hodographs (and 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear) will   
   coincide with 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting   
   multicells capable of at least small hail. Since these favorable   
   conditions will be overspreading an overnight (potentially stable)   
   boundary layer, MUCAPE should be thin, and only reach a few hundred   
   J/kg. As such, the current thinking is that buoyancy may be too   
   limited to support severe probabilities.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 11/21/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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