TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166902.weather@1:2320/105 2d8855e4   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 211631   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 211629   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1029 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   Valid 211630Z - 221200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   MS/AL/TN/KY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight   
   across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and northern   
   Alabama and possibly southern Kentucky.   
      
   ...MS/AL/TN/KY...   
   A strengthening of deep-layer flow will occur regionally in tandem   
   with the eastward progression of a low-amplitude shortwave trough   
   from the Lower Missouri Valley toward the Lower Ohio River Valley   
   tonight, with height falls remaining limited south of the Tennessee   
   Valley.   
      
   The more organized/sustained scattered thunderstorms this afternoon   
   will probably remain focused within the warm conveyor from   
   south-central Mississippi into Alabama. On the south-southwest   
   periphery of these storms, there will be a gradual northeastward   
   expansion of the effective warm sector while destabilization will   
   still remain weaker with eastward extent. Mid-level lapse rates are   
   weak, suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,   
   strong deep-layer shear and moderately strong low-level shear/SRH,   
   particularly within the aforementioned corridor, could support a   
   couple of rotating storms capable of a tornado or damaging wind.   
      
   The primary surface cold front will move into this region tonight,   
   with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to uptick   
   this evening across the Mid-South including western Tennessee and   
   northern Mississippi. Low-level winds are expected to veer by this   
   time, reducing low-level shear/SRH. Nevertheless, a low risk of a   
   tornado and/or gusty winds will exist.   
      
   ..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/21/2025   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 120 16/0 18/0 19/10 37 105/81 106/201 116/116 123/0   
   SEEN-BY: 123/25 126 130 180 755 3001 3002 4040 128/187 129/14 134/100   
   SEEN-BY: 135/115 142/104 153/143 148 149 151 757 7715 154/10 110 201/0   
   SEEN-BY: 203/0 218/700 840 220/6 221/1 6 360 222/2 226/30 227/114   
   SEEN-BY: 229/110 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832   
   SEEN-BY: 250/1 266/512 275/1000 280/5003 291/111 301/1 320/119 219   
   SEEN-BY: 320/319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66 342/200 396/45   
   SEEN-BY: 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 1321 902/26 2320/0 105 304   
   SEEN-BY: 3634/0 12 27 57 58 60 119 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 3634/12 153/757 221/6 1 320/219 229/426