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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0657 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   Valid 211300Z - 221200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF   
   MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA INTO TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY....   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later today into   
   tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and   
   northern Alabama.   
      
   ...MS/AL/TN/KY...   
   Early morning water vapor imagery shows broad west-southwesterly   
   flow aloft extending from the southern Plains into the southeast   
   states.  A southern-stream shortwave trough is noted over LA/AR,   
   which will traverse across the mid-South and TN Valley today.   
   Multiple areas of precipitation will be present along/ahead of this   
   feature, with forecast soundings showing weak-but-sufficient CAPE   
   for a few thunderstorm clusters.  Mid-level lapse rates are weak,   
   suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify.  However,   
   forecast hodographs show strong low-level shear today from eastern   
   MS across parts of AL/Middle TN and southeast KY.  This could be   
   enough for one or two rotating cells capable of a tornado or   
   damaging wind event.  The overall threat appears marginal at this   
   time.   
      
   The primary surface cold front will move into this region after dark   
   tonight, with another round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of   
   the front.  Low-level winds are expected to somewhat veer by this   
   time, reducing low-level shear.  Nevertheless, a low risk of a   
   tornado or two and/or gusty winds will continue.   
      
   ...Southern CA...   
   An upper low is centered off the coast of southern CA today, with   
   scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ongoing.  This trend   
   will continue through the day, with some risk of a few robust   
   thunderstorms affecting coastal areas.  Onshore instability and   
   low-level shear are expected to remain weak, suggesting organized   
   severe storms are unlikely.   
      
   ..Hart/Broyles.. 11/21/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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