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   ACUS03 KWNS 210826   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 210825   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0225 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL   
   TEXAS TO THE RIO GRANDE...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of   
   central Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail and damaging   
   wind gusts will be the primary threats.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A closed mid-level low across the Southwest will become an open wave   
   as it moves into the Plains on Sunday. Weak surface troughing is   
   forecast to develop across the High Plains during the day.   
   Strengthening southerly flow east of this surface trough will bring   
   rich moisture northward across central Texas as a warm front lifts   
   northward.   
      
   ...Central Texas to the Rio Grande...   
   Strengthening low-level flow will continue to destabilize the   
   boundary layer through the day as a warm front lifts north. As   
   isentropic ascent increases during the afternoon/evening, widespread   
   thunderstorm activity is anticipated along the warm front and also   
   along the cold front/dryline. Moderate instability and strong shear   
   will support the potential for mostly elevated supercells capable of   
   isolated large hail. As storms grow upscale, the threat for damaging   
   wind gusts will increase during the late evening and into the   
   overnight period. Initially, expect convection to be elevated, but   
   it may eventually become more surface based as storms advance into   
   the warm sector. Low-level lapse rates will be very weak (3-4 C/km)   
   which should keep any tornado threat isolated. However, given the   
   strong low-level shear, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 11/21/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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