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   FOUS30 KWBC 210824   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   324 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Fri Nov 21 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF=20   
   SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...   
      
   Showers and thunderstorms are expected across southern California,   
   southern Nevada and southwest Arizona as lobes of vorticity rotate   
   to the east of the low offshore. Instability appears to be on the   
   weak side which will likely be a limiting factor, however some=20   
   brief heavier rates are still possible from short training segments   
   within the deep layer southerly flow. A Slight Risk for excessive   
   rainfall remains in effect for southern California and southwest   
   Arizona and a Marginal Risk spans from the California coast to   
   south-central Arizona.   
      
   For the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys there will be an elevated   
   threat for locally excessive rainfall. During this period a steady   
   stream of above average moisture will be transported northward and   
   encounter an east-west boundary. Isolated areas of moderate to=20   
   heavy rainfall that leads to spotty problems from run-off can be   
   expected. However...the flow aloft becomes increasingly flat and=20   
   confluent during the day which will reduce the risk of any=20   
   excessive rainfall. A Marginal Risk area was maintained from   
   eastern Kansas to West Virginia/western Virginia/western North   
   Carolina.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   ...There is a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall in the Southern=20   
   Plains...   
      
   The low pressure system that brought heavy rainfall for the West   
   Coast during the Day 1 period will be exiting into the Southern   
   Plains and the warm, moist air will support scattered to widespread   
   heavy rainfall. There is an increasing signal that this setup could   
   be a significant event, especially for north-central portions of=20   
   Texas and into southern Oklahoma where a couple of solutions are=20   
   suggesting a narrow swath of 4 to 6 inches possible. A Slight Risk   
   for excessive rainfall is in effect for for much of north-   
   central/northeast Texas and south/east Oklahoma. A broader Marginal   
   Risk spans from the Big Bend vicinity to southwest Missouri and   
   western Arkansas. This part of the country will continue to be   
   monitored for a possible upgrade to a Moderate with future updates.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_wqHorZQD-pZEhb6KuNAL-W-vUnI52Cv5LvJBbDBWeWd=   
   fOHu-5ZzRLZxpxPEAJPYGiCOHLORDv53UxqTQseFlGhQr5U$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_wqHorZQD-pZEhb6KuNAL-W-vUnI52Cv5LvJBbDBWeWd=   
   fOHu-5ZzRLZxpxPEAJPYGiCOHLORDv53UxqTQseFh7n_-xE$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_wqHorZQD-pZEhb6KuNAL-W-vUnI52Cv5LvJBbDBWeWd=   
   fOHu-5ZzRLZxpxPEAJPYGiCOHLORDv53UxqTQseFxmZE_kE$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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