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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF   
   MS/AL/TN...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later today into   
   tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and   
   northern Alabama.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deamplify and move   
   quickly eastward from the central Plains toward the Ohio Valley   
   later today into tonight. In conjunction with this shortwave, a weak   
   surface low will move eastward from southern MO to near the TN/KY   
   border, along a diffuse surface boundary. Farther west, a   
   mid/upper-level cyclone will move southeastward off the coast of   
   southern CA.   
      
   ...Parts of the Southeast/TN Valley...   
   A Marginal Risk has been added across parts of MS/AL/TN. While   
   modest instability will tend to limit the magnitude of the severe   
   threat, relatively favorable wind profiles atop seasonably rich   
   low-level moisture could result in a threat for a brief tornado   
   and/or locally damaging wind.   
      
   Dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F will spread northward across parts   
   of MS/AL/TN later today, in response to the shortwave trough and   
   weak surface low approaching the Ohio Valley. Morning convection and   
   remnant cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, and midlevel   
   lapse rates will remain weak. However, weak capping will allow for   
   scattered diurnal storm development from southern/central MS into   
   western AL. While stronger mid/upper-level flow and large-scale   
   ascent will be displaced to the north, moderate deep-layer shear and   
   modest low-level veering of the wind profile could support at least   
   transient storm organization, with a threat of locally damaging wind   
   and perhaps a brief tornado.   
      
   Farther north into northern MS/AL and parts of TN/far southern KY,   
   guidance depicts renewed storm development during the evening into   
   late tonight, aided by the glancing influence of the departing   
   shortwave trough. Deep-layer flow will remain rather strong across   
   this region, so an isolated severe threat could evolve if sufficient   
   recovery and destabilization can occur. If organized convection can   
   be sustained within this regime, then a threat for a brief tornado   
   and/or locally damaging wind could develop later tonight.   
      
   ...Middle/upper TX Gulf Coast...   
   Isolated to scattered storms will likely be ongoing later this   
   morning across the TX coastal plain, with some redevelopment   
   possible later this afternoon or evening along a cold front. While   
   deep-layer shear will remain somewhat favorable for storm   
   organization, weakening large-scale ascent and warming temperatures   
   aloft are currently expected to limit severe potential. If any   
   organized convection can persist from overnight, and/or if   
   substantial destabilization can occur along/ahead of the front   
   during the afternoon, then a few strong storms will be possible.   
      
   ...Southern California...   
   Isolated storms will be possible across parts of the Southwest, in   
   association with the mid/upper-level cyclone. The strongest   
   instability will remain near and offshore of the southern CA coast,   
   and low-level flow is expected to generally be weak, but a strong   
   storm or two cannot be ruled out, especially early in the day.   
      
   ..Dean.. 11/21/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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