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   ACUS01 KWNS 210059   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 210057   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0657 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Valid 210100Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF   
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...WESTERN/CENTRAL AR...FAR   
   NORTHWEST LA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Storms capable of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado or   
   two remain possible this evening from parts of the southern Plains   
   into Arkansas.   
      
   ...Southern Plains into Arkansas...   
   Multiple areas of convection are ongoing across parts of the   
   southern Plains this evening, in advance of a mid/upper-level trough   
   that will continue to eject northeastward tonight. The greatest   
   remaining severe threat appears to reside from parts of   
   south-central into northeast TX, where MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg   
   and strong deep-layer shear remain in place immediately downstream   
   of ongoing storms. At least transient supercell structures will be   
   possible through the evening, with a threat of locally damaging wind   
   and possibly marginal hail. Modest enhancement of low-level   
   hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2) could support a brief   
   tornado threat. Some uptick in the damaging-wind threat could occur   
   with any upscale growth, before convection weakens as it encounters   
   diminishing buoyancy with eastward extent. See MCD 2216 for more   
   information regarding the short-term threat in this area.   
      
   Some storm redevelopment will be possible late tonight across   
   central TX, as an initially quasi-stationary boundary begins to move   
   eastward as a cold front. Buoyancy and deep-layer will remain   
   sufficient for some storm organization, and an isolated severe   
   threat could persist across this region overnight.   
      
   ..Dean.. 11/21/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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