TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166881.weather@1:2320/105 2d877a32   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS30 KWBC 210054   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   754 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Fri Nov 21 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF=20   
   CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS...   
      
   ...Central and Southern Plains into the MS Valley...   
   Convection over TX is moving eastward at a steadier pace this   
   evening, which should limit the areal extent and magnitude of the   
   flash flood risk going forward. However, rainfall rates are still   
   intense, so where we are able to get some brief training an=20   
   isolated to scattered flash flood risk still exists. One corridor=20   
   to keep an eye on is northeast TX into southwest AR where a more=20   
   organized MCS is tracking. There are some signs that enhanced=20   
   southerly flow ahead of this feature will continue to allow for=20   
   convective development downstream of this MCS. If this downstream=20   
   activity is able to grow in both coverage and intensity enough,=20   
   then we will see a more pronounced training risk as the MCS moves=20   
   across tonight.=20   
      
   Also keeping an eye on redevelopment closer to the cold front over   
   central TX, as some of the areas hard hit earlier today could see=20   
   another round of convection. Fortunately it looks like this=20   
   activity will probably not increase in intensity/organization until   
   after it passes east of the hardest hit portions of south central=20   
   TX...but it will be a close call. Either way this activity should=20   
   stay progressive, but even a quick 1-2" of rain could cause flood=20   
   concerns if its over areas recently saturated by rainfall earlier=20   
   today.   
      
   Over portions of central and eastern KS 1-3" of rain is expected   
   through 12z. Lower instability here will generally keep rainfall   
   rates lower, although strong lower level convergence could still=20   
   help locally push rainfall over 1"/hr. In general the lower rates=20   
   are expected to reduce the flash flood risk, but areas of slower=20   
   responding areal flooding are possible.   
      
   ...Southern California...=20   
   We maintained a Slight risk across portions of southern CA for the   
   overnight period. Thus far rainfall rates have not been that high,   
   although we do expect to locally see an uptick in rainfall rates=20   
   late this evening as some weak instability moves onshore just ahead   
   of the surface low. Overall this is a lower end Slight risk, as=20   
   any flash flood impacts are expected to stay pretty localized.=20   
   However, recent HRRR runs indicate that shallow convection getting=20   
   into the immediate coast could produce up to 1" of rain in an hour=20   
   in and around the Las Angeles area. Rates this high should stay=20   
   very localized, but if they occur over an urban area then isolated   
   flash flooding is possible.   
      
   Chenard   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Nov 21 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTHEAST California AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...   
      
   20Z Update: Little to no changes to the previous forecasts as the   
   overall synoptic pattern maintains continuity with little run-to-   
   run variance in both the QPF presentation and evolution.   
      
   Kleebauer   
      
   ..Previous Discussion..   
      
   Model guidance continues to lift the Plains system northward into   
   portions of the Ohio Valley. Above normal levels of moisture being   
   transported into the region from the south and encountering an east   
   to west oriented boundary...there is still the possibility for   
   isolated areas of moderate to heavy rainfall that leads to spotty   
   problems from run- off. However...the flow aloft becomes   
   increasingly flat and confluent during the day which will reduce   
   the risk of any excessive rainfall.   
      
   In California...we will carry a Slight risk across portions of the   
   desert areas of southeast CA into southwest AZ. Lobes of vorticity   
   east of the closed low will produce periodic rounds of showers and   
   embedded thunderstorms. Instability looks pretty weak, which will   
   likely be a limiting factor, however some brief heavier rates are   
   still possible from short training segments within the deep layer   
   southerly flow.   
      
   Bann/Chenard   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Bann/Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7aZR-v0ieVPmnSCsG0VVDBXWW7P1lffA8kLiwc6YErOP=   
   CvP2IUqo2xZVemyJfyMe6lYgRTJXXeIsEpWmTXduZtCd8yE$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7aZR-v0ieVPmnSCsG0VVDBXWW7P1lffA8kLiwc6YErOP=   
   CvP2IUqo2xZVemyJfyMe6lYgRTJXXeIsEpWmTXdum2lA-3Y$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7aZR-v0ieVPmnSCsG0VVDBXWW7P1lffA8kLiwc6YErOP=   
   CvP2IUqo2xZVemyJfyMe6lYgRTJXXeIsEpWmTXduRRSyDD0$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 206 300 307 317   
   SEEN-BY: 229/400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364   
   SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426