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   ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-210200-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2216   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0534 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Areas affected...over northeast Texas and into far southwest   
   Arkansas   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 202334Z - 210200Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A severe storm or two may affect parts of northeast Texas   
   and vicinity this evening. Locally damaging gusts along with hail   
   over 1.00" diameter may occur.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a moist air mass over eastern   
   TX, east of a cold front and south of a warm front which is nearly   
   stationary. Surface winds are generally weak across the moist sector   
   with little surface pressure gradient. This weakness extends up to   
   850 mb as well, where speeds are on the order of 20-25 kt.   
      
   While cool midlevel temperatures remain over the area, the primary   
   trough continues to eject northeastward from the TX Panhandle into   
   western OK, with strong midlevel warming to the south. East of this   
   wave, height tendencies are forecast to remain rather neutral.   
   Still, moderate mid and high level southwesterlies are resulting in   
   effective shear around 50 kt. These elongated hodographs   
   conditionally favor a few longer lived cells off the cold front.=20   
      
   Areas of stronger cells currently extend from Ellis County into   
   Limestone/Falls Counties. The Ellis County complex is near the warm   
   front, and may persist as it rides along that boundary, with   
   enhanced ascent and gusty wind potential.   
      
   ..Jewell/Smith.. 11/20/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!6_CC28xJ5QrBMlxFllzvBPNy2FXyWacTtW-z-5aYFZ6RocCjNIhn61B9gvBoyld43RLRZege2=   
   gL5Y6HW4oQjZKSdErc$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...   
      
   LAT...LON   31239705 31899674 32489667 32799671 34059540 34309470   
               34179418 33699391 32329453 31789515 31419600 31239705=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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