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   ACUS11 KWNS 202118   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 202118=20   
   TXZ000-202315-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2215   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0318 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of south-central and central Texas   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 202118Z - 202315Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms and a few supercells along a   
   baroclinic zone may pose a risk for isolated hail, damaging gusts or   
   a brief tornado across central/south-central TX into this evening.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Over the course of this afternoon, scattered convection   
   along a diffuse baroclinic zone has gradually intensified across   
   portions of south-central TX. Clearing to the east of the ongoing   
   storms has resulted in some diurnal warming of an unseasonably moist   
   air mass, aiding in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1000-1500   
   J/kg). The increase in intensity is also likely tied to the arrival   
   of stronger forcing for ascent ahead of the main upper trough over   
   the Rio Grande Valley. Stronger flow aloft (mostly parallel to the   
   front/outflow) will continue to support storm organization with a   
   mixed mode of line segments and supercells.   
      
   Current expectations are for the ongoing convection to gradually   
   move eastward into the destabilized air mass across   
   central/south-central TX with occasional intensification. With an   
   increase in forcing and boundary-parallel flow, upscale growth   
   appears to be the most likely result. Still, a few semi-discrete or   
   embedded elements may intensify and pose an isolated severe risk   
   into this evening. Hail and damaging winds would be the most likely   
   hazards, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given modestly   
   large low-level hodographs, especially with the more cellular   
   elements along the southern periphery of the primary convective   
   band.=20   
      
   Storm intensity is expected to be somewhat transient given the   
   undercutting nature of the front and the boundary parallel flow.   
   Still, some intensification is possible over the next few hours.   
   Convective trends will be monitored, but given the limited spatial   
   and temporal risk, a WW currently appears unlikely.   
      
   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 11/20/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!8_4UZxYXzvLle_SjixVPaQQbPISFNX9qkJuhUnj1T2ulnIissPO5WWxG_sWwElWImifMhqzUA=   
   RusIH4oZscLC9iQjSQ$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...   
      
   LAT...LON   29110085 30619969 31829814 32169737 32129699 31789670   
               30579692 29029749 27879999 28350052 29110085=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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