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   ACUS11 KWNS 202048   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 202047=20   
   TXZ000-202315-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2214   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0247 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Southern TX Panhandle/TX South Plains   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 202047Z - 202315Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Some stronger gusts and isolated hail are possible across   
   the southern TX Panhandle/TX South Plains this afternoon.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown a clearing trend   
   across much of southwest TX over the last few hours, with some   
   clearing now noted across the South Plains. This clearing is   
   occurring just ahead of a line of deeper convective cores (and   
   sporadic lightning) moving quickly northeastward across the region.   
   This line has developing along the leading edge of stronger forcing   
   for ascent attendant to a shortwave trough pivoting across the   
   southern High Plains. The clearing and subsequent heating/mixing of   
   the boundary layer resulted in a reduction in the overall buoyancy,   
   with updraft strength remaining muted thus far. A similar scenario   
   may unfold farther north across the southern TX Panhandle, although   
   the greater low-level moisture will eastward/southeastward extent   
   should allow for some modest buoyancy to remain. As such, the   
   general expectation is for updraft strength to gradually increase   
   within this line as it moves into this greater low-level moisture   
   and buoyancy over the southeast TX Panhandle/far northwest TX   
   vicinity. This could result in a few stronger gusts as well as   
   isolated hail. Currently, severe coverage is expected to remain low   
   enough to preclude watch issuance, but convective trends will be   
   monitored closely.   
      
   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 11/20/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!7qp_zsl8VlfRDXrzdfGuGLGM4EZvoekMi97BewzPDaqjUU4HTD1gnXTNyB8tQ4f0-zcS7WMKh=   
   cIWhXPnQF9AHZygJP0$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...   
      
   LAT...LON   33990244 34710220 35040099 34680022 33620013 33090080   
               33110185 33990244=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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