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   SPC AC 201959   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0159 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Valid 202000Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE   
   SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKANSAS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today into this   
   evening across the southern Plains into Arkansas. Large hail,   
   damaging winds, and a tornado or two all appear possible.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
   No changes were made with this update. An upgrade to Slight Risk was   
   considered for parts of south-central into north-central TX ahead of   
   the northeast/southwest-oriented band of storms. Here, diurnal   
   heating has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to   
   lower 80s amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints -- resulting in a   
   moderately unstable warm sector. While this instability and around   
   50 kt of effective shear will conditionally favor embedded supercell   
   structures, current thinking is that deep-layer southwesterly   
   flow/shear parallel to the larger-scale cold pool will result in   
   undercutting and training of storms. Therefore, held off on an   
   upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, damaging gusts, sporadic large   
   hail, and perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible with any   
   longer-lived storms -- especially any that can form immediately   
   ahead of the convective band and related cold pool.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 11/20/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025/   
      
   ...Southern Plains to Arkansas...   
   Showers/thunderstorms remain common at late morning with widespread   
   cloud cover with the warm sector across most of Texas and Oklahoma.   
   This precedes a mid/upper-level trough currently located over   
   Arizona/New Mexico and far northern Mexico, which will continue to   
   eject northeastward toward the southern High Plains. A surface low   
   will gradually deepen across the south-central High Plains and   
   develop eastward through the period.   
      
   It still seems likely that convection and widespread cloud cover   
   will persist through the day, resulting in generally modest diurnal   
   heating and weakening mid-level lapse rates with time. While   
   enhanced deep-layer shear will remain across the warm sector owing   
   to persistent strong southwesterly mid-level flow, the potential for   
   organized thunderstorms downstream or in the wake of ongoing morning   
   convection remains uncertain, particularly in the context of   
   somewhat stronger low-level winds more likely to interface where   
   convective overturning has occurred.   
      
   Regardless, some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized   
   multicell clusters will exist this afternoon/evening particularly   
   across portions of central and possibly into parts of   
   North/northeast Texas. This includes isolated severe hail and   
   damaging winds, and a modest enlargement of low-level hodographs   
   could also support a tornado risk.   
      
   Farther west, some high-resolution guidance continues to show the   
   development of additional strong/locally severe storms across   
   east/southeast New Mexico into west Texas/southwest Oklahoma, in   
   closer proximity to the ejecting upper trough. This convection could   
   pose a threat of strong gusts and perhaps some hail, but it remains   
   uncertain as to whether sufficient instability will develop to   
   support anything beyond a very isolated/marginal-type severe risk.   
      
   $$   
      
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