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   FOUS11 KWBC 201935   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   235 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Valid 00Z Fri Nov 21 2025 - 00Z Mon Nov 24 2025   
      
   ...Southern & Central Rockies...   
   Day 1...   
      
   An upper trough that is becoming negatively titled over New Mexico   
   today will weaken overnight as it shears out to the east after   
   00Z. Snow over northern AZ/NM into UT/CO, with relatively high snow   
   levels >8000ft, will still persist into early Friday as lingering   
   convergence and upslope muster up another inch or two of snow over   
   the CO/NM Rockies. WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances   
   (30-50%) for additional snowfall totals >4" in the San Juans, the   
   Sangre de Cristos, and central CO Rockies (generally above   
   10,000ft).   
      
   ...California & Southern Rockies...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A Pacific upper low making its way south-southeastward through   
   northern CA today will become positioned of the southern CA coast   
   on Friday. As healthy PVA and upslope flow ensue down wind of the   
   upper low this afternoon, periods of snow will taper off over the   
   Trinity/Siskiyou mountains and the persist along the Sierra Nevada.   
   Snow levels will hover around 6000ft over the central/southern   
   Sierra this evening and slowly drop overnight. Across southern CA,   
   snow levels around 6500ft this afternoon will drop to around   
   6000ft tonight. The upper low will continue to plunge southward   
   Friday night and become located west of Baja California by   
   Saturday. With the upper low so far south of the region, the colder   
   temperatures aloft will be displaced south and diminished upslope   
   flow will reduce precipitation rates. This will make rain the   
   primary precipitation type across southern CA on Saturday (though   
   some snow may linger over the tallest peaks of the SoCal   
   mountains). The upper low will begin to push east on Sunday that   
   will deliver additional high elevation mountain snow to the San   
   Juans and Sangre De Cristo above 10,000ft.   
      
   WPC probabilities for >8" of snow are >50% above about 9000ft over   
   the Sierra. Across the San Gabriel and San Bernadino mountains,   
   with a longer duration of precipitation through Friday, a significant   
   heavy/wet snowfall is likely. WPC probabilities for >8" of snow   
   are >70% above 7000ft (around the elevation of Big Bear Lake).   
   Three-day totals may approach 24" above 9000ft. This could cause   
   locally significant travel disruptions over these higher   
   elevations, along with the potential for some tree damage and   
   infrastructure impacts given the heavy/wet consistency of the   
   snowfall. The WSSI does depict some Moderate to locally Major   
   Impacts in the San Gabriel and San Bernadino Mountains above   
   8,000ft. In the Southern Rockies, WPC probabilities show low-to-   
   moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall totals >6" in the more   
   remote/higher ridge lines of the San Juans and Sangre De Cristo.   
      
      
   The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than   
   10 percent.   
      
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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