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   ACUS03 KWNS 201931   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 201931   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0131 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the   
   southern Plains and Southeast on Saturday, though severe   
   thunderstorm potential appears low.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   An upper-level low will translate to an open wave while impinging on   
   the southern High Plains, with a broad mid-level trough poised to   
   traverse the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. As a result, widespread   
   surface high pressure will overspread much of the central and   
   northern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential for these areas.   
   Adequate moisture ahead of the surface cold front, along with   
   frontal convergence, will encourage isolated to scattered   
   thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening across   
   portions of eastern TX to the Carolina coastline. A few lightning   
   flashes are also possible across portions of AZ into NM as cold air   
   aloft from the upper low coincides with synoptic ascent of a   
   marginally moist, unstable airmass. Low-level moisture may be   
   locally more robust into western TX, where surface lee troughing,   
   encouraged by the approaching mid-level trough, will promote   
   warm-air/moisture advection from the Gulf. While the moist   
   southeasterly flow beneath 60-80 kt southwesterly 500 mb winds will   
   promote strong low-level shear, modest mid-level lapse rates atop a   
   stable boundary layer should limit the severe threat.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 11/20/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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