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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1237   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   106 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Areas affected...South-Central TX into the Hill Country   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely   
      
   Valid 201800Z - 210000Z   
      
   Summary...Additional rainfall of 1.5-3.0" (and locally higher)   
   over portions of already saturated areas is likely to continue   
   scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding (with   
   expectations for locally significant flash flooding developing).   
      
   Discussion...Sustained training convection has resulted in a   
   narrow swath of heavy rainfall (2-5" over the past 3-6 hours, per   
   MRMS estimates) through the morning hours. While numerous (but   
   very geographically focused) flash floods are ongoing in portions   
   of the TX Hill Country, concerns are growing for continued   
   worsening of impacts as persistent low-level moisture transport   
   and convergence have coincided with destabilization just upstream   
   of the hardest hit areas (to the southwest into portions of   
   South-Central TX near Del Rio). The mesoscale environment is   
   otherwise characterized by precipitable water values of 1.4-1.7"   
   (near daily records, as DRT sounding climatology indicates a 90th   
   percentile of ~1.2"), most-unstable CAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg, and   
   substantial deep layer shear of 55-65 kts. While a dry line is   
   slowly approaching the region from the west, this is likely only   
   increasing the low-level forcing over the next several hours with   
   the expectation that the feature will stall west of Del Rio.   
      
   Going forward, there is strong agreement among the hi-res CAMs for   
   an additional 1.5-3.0" of rainfall (with at least one run of the   
   HRRR indicating localized totals of up to 5", as well as HREF 3"   
   exceedance probabilities of 15-25%). Given the wet antecedent   
   conditions (and the already relatively sensitive terrain of   
   portions of the Hill Country), continued scattered to numerous   
   instances of flash flooding are likely (including some locally   
   significant instances of flash flooding, as FFGs of 1.5" are lower   
   are indicated across already hard hit areas).   
      
   Churchill   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!8gm6zExzPuqInA_FHv9lwYjvY6HraxezaB7ugrj84BH-qx3gctoRT7BOcYLMUDXdCSzx=   
   G3klA6fn0bwz91ueqDS-uDc$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   32459847 32329806 31959765 31639764 31299797=20   
               30989823 30639859 30139902 29589955 29340009=20   
               29340072 29590130 30100103 30600069 31080033=20   
               31410010 31899969 32249924 32429888=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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