TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166869.weather@1:2320/105 2d871057   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS02 KWNS 201722   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 201721   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1121 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast to the   
   central Appalachians tomorrow (Friday). Severe thunderstorms appear   
   unlikely.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the TN Valley as an upper   
   low meanders over southern CA tomorrow (Friday). Isolated lightning   
   flashes may occur across southern CA into southwestern AZ as lift   
   and cooler temperatures aloft overspread the region in association   
   with the upper low. Across the TN Valley, the passage of the   
   aforementioned mid-level shortwave trough will encourage a low-level   
   warm-air advection regime. Modest upper support, in tandem with   
   mediocre buoyancy (driven primarily by low-level moisture) will   
   support isolated to scattered thunderstorms from eastern TX to the   
   central Appalachians through the day tomorrow.   
      
   ...TN Valley Friday night...   
   As the low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough overspreads the TN   
   Valley, low-level flow (however moist) should become highly veered   
   through the day Friday, resulting in unidirectional wind fields and   
   substantially reduced low-level convergence. However, by Friday   
   night (i.e. 03-09Z time frame), guidance does hint at a small   
   mid-level impulse traversing the TN Valley. Locally stronger flow   
   aloft with this impulse will support some speed shear/elongated   
   hodographs, resulting in 40+ kt effective bulk shear across the warm   
   sector ahead of an approaching surface cold front. An uptick in   
   thunderstorm coverage may occur during this time, and some of these   
   storms may become organized. Still, buoyancy will be weak, with no   
   more than a few hundred J/kg of thin MLCAPE given poor tropospheric   
   lapse rates. A stronger, sustained storm capable of producing a   
   damaging gust or brief tornado would be plausible with the   
   anticipated vertical wind shear given better buoyancy. However, the   
   current thinking is that buoyancy may be too limited to warrant   
   severe probabilities at this time.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 11/20/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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