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   TXZ000-OKZ000-202230-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1236   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1152 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Areas affected...North TX into southwest OK   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely   
      
   Valid 201650Z - 202230Z   
      
   Summary...Additional rainfall of 1.5-3.0" (and locally higher) is   
   likely to result in scattered instances of flash flooding (and may   
   be locally significant).   
      
   Discussion...Low-level convergence upstream (southwest) of the DFW   
   metro has gradually consolidated a SSE to NNW training segment of   
   convection across portions of North TX with hourly totals now   
   approaching 2"/hr (per MRMS estimates). This line of showers and   
   thunderstorms is occurring along a ThetaE gradient well to the   
   east of the primary front (near the Rolling Plains and Cap Rock   
   south of the TX Panhandle) with precipitable water values of   
   1.5-1.7" (near record values, and well above the FWD 90th   
   percentile of ~1.2"), ML CAPE of 500-750 J/kg, and substantial   
   deep layer shear of 45-55 kts. As southerly low-level moisture   
   transport has recently ramped up, expect a period of several   
   several more hours of off and on heavy rainfall (with an even more   
   impressive train of showers is ongoing farther southwest over the   
   TX Hill Country, likely to move into the region while still   
   possibly maintaining 2-3"/hr rainfall rates).   
      
   The bulk of the hi-res guidance suggests an addition 1.5-3.0" of   
   rainfall over the next 3-6 hours (per 12z HREF probability matched   
   mean QPF) with the potential for localized 3" exceedance (per   
   40-km HREF >3" probs of 20-40%). With a narrow swath of 2-4" of   
   rainfall already having fallen over the past 6-12 hours (per NSSL   
   estimates), Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) are as low as 1.5-2.5" (and   
   even lower to the northwest of the metro area where the maximum   
   rainfall occured). Given these wet antecedent conditions and the   
   potential for additional significant heavy rainfall, scattered   
   instances of flash flooding are likely (and may locally be   
   significant, particularly across more sensitive urbanized terrain   
   and where streamflows are already elevated).   
      
   Churchill   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!4irV483kYzdvk4QIYc2rRMeSYNgBQuyC8Mbjbl2gVhfVg5U5hcn2wKp_0KEqSN__j6v1=   
   gifA8jUNzsMY1UilaXWyX64$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   34779506 34749469 34609448 34149451 33739464=20   
               33489482 33219549 32879604 32429662 32159723=20   
               32019790 32539822 32949780 33239739 33529712=20   
               33869700 34159660 34509605 34679554=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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