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   ACUS01 KWNS 201632   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 201631   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1031 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Valid 201630Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE   
   SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKANSAS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today into this   
   evening across the southern Plains into Arkansas. Large hail,   
   damaging winds, and a tornado or two all appear possible.   
      
   ...Southern Plains to Arkansas...   
   Showers/thunderstorms remain common at late morning with widespread   
   cloud cover with the warm sector across most of Texas and Oklahoma.   
   This precedes a mid/upper-level trough currently located over   
   Arizona/New Mexico and far northern Mexico, which will continue to   
   eject northeastward toward the southern High Plains. A surface low   
   will gradually deepen across the south-central High Plains and   
   develop eastward through the period.   
      
   It still seems likely that convection and widespread cloud cover   
   will persist through the day, resulting in generally modest diurnal   
   heating and weakening mid-level lapse rates with time. While   
   enhanced deep-layer shear will remain across the warm sector owing   
   to persistent strong southwesterly mid-level flow, the potential for   
   organized thunderstorms downstream or in the wake of ongoing morning   
   convection remains uncertain, particularly in the context of   
   somewhat stronger low-level winds more likely to interface where   
   convective overturning has occurred.   
      
   Regardless, some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized   
   multicell clusters will exist this afternoon/evening particularly   
   across portions of central and possibly into parts of   
   North/northeast Texas. This includes isolated severe hail and   
   damaging winds, and a modest enlargement of low-level hodographs   
   could also support a tornado risk.   
      
   Farther west, some high-resolution guidance continues to show the   
   development of additional strong/locally severe storms across   
   east/southeast New Mexico into west Texas/southwest Oklahoma, in   
   closer proximity to the ejecting upper trough. This convection could   
   pose a threat of strong gusts and perhaps some hail, but it remains   
   uncertain as to whether sufficient instability will develop to   
   support anything beyond a very isolated/marginal-type severe risk.   
      
   ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/20/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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