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   ACUS01 KWNS 201242   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 201240   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0640 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Valid 201300Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today into this   
   evening across the southern Plains into Arkansas. Large hail,   
   damaging winds, and a tornado or two all appear possible.   
      
   ...Southern Plains into Arkansas...   
   A mid/upper-level trough extending from the Southwest into northern   
   Mexico this morning will eject northeastward across parts of the   
   southern Plains today. In response, a surface low will gradually   
   deepen across the south-central High Plains and develop eastward   
   through the period. A front extending across parts of OK/AR this   
   morning will lift slowly northward as a warm front ahead of the   
   surface low. Thunderstorms ongoing across parts of the southern   
   Plains/ArkLaTex this morning are being aided by a modest low-level   
   jet and ascent attendant to the approaching upper trough. Weak to   
   locally moderate instability and effective shear of 40-50 kt may   
   support a few strong to severe thunderstorms this morning from parts   
   of eastern NM into west/central TX and OK, with a threat for mainly   
   isolated hail and locally gusty winds.   
      
   Convection and widespread cloud cover will likely persist through   
   the day, resulting in generally modest diurnal heating and weakening   
   mid-level lapse rates with time. While enhanced deep-layer shear   
   will remain across the warm sector owing to persistent strong   
   southwesterly mid-level flow, the potential for organized   
   thunderstorms downstream or in the wake of ongoing morning   
   convection remains uncertain. Still, depending on the extent of   
   heating and related destabilization, most guidance continues to show   
   some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized multicell   
   clusters this afternoon/evening across portions of TX, with a threat   
   of isolated severe hail and damaging winds. Modest enlargement of   
   low-level hodographs with time could also support a tornado threat   
   from parts of central/east TX into eastern OK/western AR along and   
   south of the warm front, assuming surface-based supercells can be   
   sustained. An isolated severe risk may persist into east TX and the   
   ArkLaTex tonight. However, confidence in a corridor of greater   
   severe risk remains too low to include higher severe probabilities   
   at this time.   
      
   Farther west, some high-resolution guidance continues to show the   
   development of a modestly organized convective line across far   
   eastern NM into west TX during the afternoon/evening, in closer   
   proximity to the ejecting upper trough. This convection could pose a   
   threat of strong gusts and perhaps some hail, but it remains   
   uncertain as to whether sufficient instability will develop to   
   support a severe threat. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk   
   across this region with only minor changes.   
      
   ..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/20/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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