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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1235   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   518 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of central TX   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely   
      
   Valid 201015Z - 201600Z   
      
   Summary...Another round of heavy rain with flash flood potential   
   appears to be organizing across western portions of the Edwards   
   Plateau. Areas of training are likely to produce hourly rainfall   
   of 1 to 2 inches and 3-hr totals of 2-4 inches (locally higher)   
   across portions of central TX. A few instances of flash flooding   
   will be likely through 16Z.   
      
   Discussion...Between 09-10Z, thunderstorm coverage has been   
   increasing across western portions of the Edwards Plateau, from   
   near SJT, south-southwest toward the Rio Grande. This recent   
   increase could be related to increasing ascent ahead of an   
   approaching mid-level trough over AZ and northwestern Mexico,   
   which was beginning to acquire a negative tilt, but was still   
   located a bit west of the region. In addition, 925-850 mb winds   
   remained in the 20-30 kt range from the S to SSE, continuing to   
   transport anomalous low level moisture northward from the western   
   Gulf into central TX where 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE was estimated by   
   the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis page. Orographic lift across the Edwards   
   Plateau and a recent increase of low level convergence are also   
   contributing factors to the recent expansion of thunderstorms.   
      
   Recent RAP guidance indicates an axis or axes of low level   
   convergence aligning from Val Verde County toward the vicinity of   
   San Angelo through 16Z, matching the orientation of the mean   
   steering flow from the SSW. This signal, when combined with weak   
   right-entrance region divergence tied to an upper level jet east   
   of the upper level trough, is expected to result in areas of   
   training with 1 to 2 inches of rain per hour, and 2 to 4 inches of   
   rain in 3 hours or less time (locally higher possible). In   
   addition, recent WoFS guidance has been increasing probabilities   
   for 2+ inches of rain from near Val Verde County, north to   
   northeastward to just southeast of San Angelo over the next few   
   hours, with the 09Z cycle displaying a 40-70 percent probability   
   of exceeding 2 inches through 15Z across this corridor. The   
   anomalously moist environment will support locally high rainfall   
   intensities which should overcome dry antecedent conditions,   
   supporting at least a localized flash flood concern over the next   
   3-6 hours, with locally considerable impacts possible across any   
   urban/impervious surfaces.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!8ctK3IvwUmNeuhMpezkSQKaDUREe_ipyjQqaaIn2NaAU7AYk0d1dAsqSQkMepj0XxAgP=   
   CN2QcatTu6iZMWjZ_M4i8LQ$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   32389946 32119884 31699846 30639852 29619945=20   
               28910033 29010170 30760171 32090080=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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