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   ACUS48 KWNS 200910   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 200909   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0309 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Valid 231200Z - 281200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   ...Days 4-6/Sun-Tue -- Southern Plains to the TN Valley...   
      
   An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest/northern Mexico   
   will eject east into the Plains by early Day 5/Monday.  Gulf   
   moisture will spread northward across portions of TX into the Lower   
   MS Valley through early Tuesday. This moisture return will occur   
   ahead of the ejecting trough/increasing deep-layer southwesterly   
   flow, and a cold front sweeping across the region. Warm advection   
   will support thunderstorm development by late Sunday as the upper   
   trough and cold front begin to march across TX, and some hail risk   
   could accompany this activity. However, storm mode could preclude a   
   greater risk, and storm coverage/intensity is uncertain given   
   overnight timing.   
      
   As this system continues east across the ArkLaTex into the Lower MS   
   Valley on Monday, some severe potential could persist into these   
   areas. However, uncertainty regarding moisture return and degree of   
   destabilization due to potentially ongoing and widespread training   
   precipitation precludes severe probabilities at this time. Some risk   
   could continue across parts of the TN Valley/Southeast into Tuesday.   
   However, the upper trough is expected to be weakening and lifting   
   well north of the region by this time.   
      
   ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu...   
      
   The surface front will move offshore on Day 7/Wed and strong surface   
   high pressure will build across much of the CONUS. This will result   
   in dry and colder conditions, leading to a stable airmass. Severe   
   potential appears low mid to late in the week.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 11/20/2025   
      
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