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   Excessive Rainfall Discussion...UPDATED   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   401 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Thu Nov 20 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND   
   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   Maintained the targeted Moderate Risk for portions of Soth-Central   
   Texas given persistent signals for localized 5"+ storm totals from   
   the HREF and the RRFS guidance. That amount of rainfall may result   
   in numerous instances of flash flooding in a relatively small area   
   (with higher confidence overall in locally significant flash   
   flooding as opposed to the total areal coverage). The overnight   
   runs of the HREF and RRFS While 6-hr FFG exceedance probs from the   
   HREF and RRFS both rise to at least 60 percent later today   
   (generally in the morning perhaps into early afternoon) before   
   enough westerly flow develops in the mid-levels which shifts the   
   focus farther eastward. The probabilities diminish during the   
   afternoon and evening. As a result...expanded the surrounding   
   Marginal/Slight risk areas just a bit in the inflow region. Some   
   nudges were made to the placement of the western/northern boundary   
   of the northern Slight Risk area based on latest probabilistic   
   guidance. Some lingering questions remain regarding the eastward   
   extent of both the South-Central TX and Ozarks clusters of   
   convection...however. Introduced a Marginal risk area across parts   
   of southern New Mexico which was a continuation of the area in   
   effect until 20/12Z...as convection moves eastward in response   
   height falls and increasingly difluent flow aloft.   
      
   ..California...   
      
   Decided to upgrade to a Slight Risk area for portions of coastal=20   
   Southern California as the next area of low pressure over the=20   
   eastern North Pacific drops along the California coast and brings=20   
   another round of rainfall later today into early Friday. There has=20   
   been an uptick in rainfall amounts in the numerical guidance over=20   
   the past 24 hours but still generally under an inch...although=20   
   locally higher amounts could fall in terrain. Concern is that=20   
   antecedent conditions have been wet for the better part of a=20   
   week...suggesting some of area could be more sensitive to run off=20   
   problems even away from the highly urbanized areas.   
      
   Bann   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Nov 21 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF   
   THE OHIO VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST US...   
      
   Model guidance continues to lift the Plains system northward into   
   portions of the Ohio Valley. Above normal levels of moisture being   
   transported into the region from the south and encountering an east   
   to west oriented boundary...there is still the possibility for   
   isolated areas of moderate to heavy rainfall that leads to spotty   
   problems from run- off. However...the flow aloft becomes   
   increasingly flat and confluent during the day which will reduce   
   the risk of any excessive rainfall.   
      
   In California...only limited changes necessary from the previous   
   forecast due to general run- to- run continuity with heaviest   
   rainfall still trending closer to the southern Peninsular Range   
   with an extension of convection back over the southeast CA deserts   
   and southwest AZ. For now, will maintain relatively continuity of   
   the MRGL with some minor adjustments overall.   
      
   Bann   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 per cent.   
      
   Bann   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_U6Qh8HwaTZ9NqWVMv7e50hcu6XxGcF-201t436KfdmN=   
   MUcbGMuoEJmk4CZqZ43gX6-X5B6Lf5S0_CzVHPb_6NEAIkc$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_U6Qh8HwaTZ9NqWVMv7e50hcu6XxGcF-201t436KfdmN=   
   MUcbGMuoEJmk4CZqZ43gX6-X5B6Lf5S0_CzVHPb_z2oPl-c$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_U6Qh8HwaTZ9NqWVMv7e50hcu6XxGcF-201t436KfdmN=   
   MUcbGMuoEJmk4CZqZ43gX6-X5B6Lf5S0_CzVHPb_Ei_clEA$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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