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   FOUS11 KWBC 200815   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   315 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Valid 12Z Thu Nov 20 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   ...Southern & Central Rockies...   
   Day 1...   
      
   An upper low over AZ this morning will take on an increasingly   
   negative tilt over northern Mexico though weaken overnight as it   
   mostly shears out to the east after 00Z. Snow will continue this   
   morning over northern AZ/NM into UT/CO with relatively high snow   
   levels >8000ft that will drop through the day. Some light snow will   
   still persist into D2 (early Friday) as lingering convergence and   
   upslope squeeze out another inch or two over the CO Rockies. WPC   
   probabilities for at least four inches of snow after 12Z Thu are   
   highest (>50%) over the highest peaks of the San Juans and the   
   Sangre de Cristos (generally above 10,000ft).   
      
   ...California...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A Pacific upper low will form early this morning just west of   
   WA/OR and dive south-southeastward today through NorCal then to a   
   position west of Los Angeles early Friday. With regions of   
   vorticity rotating around the main center, bouts of snow will move   
   through the CA terrain from the Trinity/Siskiyou mountains today   
   then through the Sierra later this afternoon into Friday. Snow   
   levels will be around 5000-6000ft this morning over NorCal and   
   around 6000ft over the central/southern Sierra this evening and   
   slowly drop overnight. Over SoCal, snow levels will be around   
   6500ft this afternoon and drop to around 6000ft overnight. The   
   upper low will be in no hurry to exit the region, moving through   
   northern Baja California Saturday evening. By then, most of the   
   precipitation will be confined to the lower elevations and mostly   
   rain (though snow may linger over the SoCal mountains).   
      
   WPC probabilities for at least six inches of snow are >50% above   
   about 9000ft over the Sierra. Across the San Gabriel and San   
   Bernadino mountains, with a longer duration of precipitation   
   through Friday, significant snowfall is quite probable. WPC   
   probabilities for at least eight inches of snow are >50% above   
   about 7000ft (around the elevation of Big Bear Lake). Three-day   
   totals may exceed 12-18" above 9000ft. This could cause significant   
   travel disruptions over these higher elevations.   
      
   The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than   
   10 percent.   
      
   Fracasso   
      
   $$   
      
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