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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 200804   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 200803   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0203 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the   
   southern Plains and Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential   
   appears low.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
      
   An upper low and attendant trough will overspread the Southwest on   
   Saturday while shortwave upper ridging develops over the   
   southern/central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will develop   
   southeast across the TX coast and much of the Southeast U.S.   
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front amid a   
   modestly unstable and moist boundary layer. Severe storms are not   
   expected given limited instability and weak vertical shear.   
   Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of the   
   Southwest where cold temperatures aloft will support meager but   
   sufficient MUCAPE.   
      
   Model spread increases late in the period regarding the ejection of   
   the Southwest upper trough. Some guidance suggests a low-level jet   
   will strengthen across the southern High Plains vicinity as the   
   upper trough approaches the vicinity toward Sunday morning.   
   Increasing midlevel moisture within deep-layer southwesterly flow,   
   and modestly steepening midlevel lapse rates could generate enough   
   elevated instability for isolated thunderstorm development across   
   the southern High Plains overnight, though severe storms are not   
   expected.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 11/20/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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