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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1234   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   302 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Areas affected...northeastern TX, southeastern OK into   
   south-central AR   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 200800Z - 201400Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across   
   portions of northeastern TX, southeastern OK into south-central AR   
   through the early morning hours. 2 to 4 inches of rain in 2-3   
   hours is expected within idealized training, but the threat is   
   expected to primarily exist across urban areas or other locations   
   with poor drainage.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms were observed on 0730Z   
   radar/infrared satellite imagery over portions of northern TX into   
   southern OK. These storms were located beneath broad southwesterly   
   flow aloft, with low level warm advection helping aid ascent over   
   the region. While forcing for ascent was not strongly defined over   
   any particular region of TX/OK/AR, leading to a somewhat   
   disorganized pattern on radar imagery, trends have shown an   
   increasing coverage in the number of cells over the past few   
   hours, with movement off toward the northeast. MLCAPE was between   
   500-1500 J/kg with varying degrees of CIN, though many of the   
   ongoing cells were likely a bit elevated above the surface.   
   Moisture values were anomalously high for mid-November with   
   GPS-derived PW values between 1.5 to just over 1.7 inches as of   
   06Z in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth region.   
      
   Continued low level warm advection with transient axes of low   
   level convergence are likely to maintain scattered thunderstorms   
   with areas of short term training capable of producing 1 to 2   
   inches of rain in an hour, and 3-hr totals of 2 to 4 inches. Mean   
   movement of small thunderstorm clusters should continue off toward   
   the northeast but upstream development and training will   
   potentially result in flash flooding should these higher rainfall   
   totals overlap with an urban or otherwise poorly draining   
   location.   
      
   The 06Z and 07Z WoFS seems to have locked onto a signal for higher   
   rainfall potential with the 07Z cycle indicating a 40-50 percent   
   chance of exceeding 3 inches through the 11-12Z time frame within   
   an axis covering northeastern Dallas County into southern Collin   
   County. However, given a lack of rainfall over at least the past   
   2-3 weeks, flash flood guidance is relatively high which should   
   limit the coverage of flash flooding over the next 3-6 hours.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!6D9fBgG0juDuoIIa30dzEkqdMbIIT5lBWjkA6bza_T8Tuc7n0CKIf3us7JMPxYLFw189=   
   L9C8giu8UUC8lF9h_ZMtH68$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...OUN...SHV...TSA...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   35659111 34999049 34359073 33769204 32719464=20   
               32339727 32669814 33959781 35169407=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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