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   ACUS02 KWNS 200625   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 200624   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1224 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast into the   
   Tennessee Valley and central/southern Appalachians on Friday. Severe   
   thunderstorms are not expected.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
      
   A mid/upper shortwave trough will migrate east from the central   
   Plains to the Ohio Valley on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper low will   
   develop southward across southern CA/northwest Mexico. Cold   
   temperatures beneath the upper low will support isolated lightning   
   flashes across far southern CA into the Lower CO Valley. Further   
   east, a broad area of warm advection will transport Gulf moisture   
   northward across the south-central states toward the TN Valley. As   
   the upper trough develops east, a weak surface low will move along a   
   warm front draped across the OH Valley, while a cold front shifts   
   east across the Ozarks into eastern TX.   
      
   Stronger deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the warm   
   sector, but is expected to weaken some with time while also becoming   
   increasingly displaced to the north of the warm sector (in tandem   
   with stronger large-scale ascent) into the afternoon/evening.   
   Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within a   
   modestly unstable airmass ahead of the cold front, but sub-optimal   
   thermodynamic profiles and weakening vertical shear will limit   
   severe potential.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 11/20/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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