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   SPC AC 200558   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1158 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE   
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today into this   
   evening across the southern Plains. Isolated hail, localized strong   
   to severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially extending from the   
   Southwest into northern Mexico will eject northeastward across parts   
   of the southern Plains later today. In response to this shortwave, a   
   surface low will gradually deepen across the south-central Great   
   Plains and move eastward through the period. A surface boundary   
   draped across parts of OK/AR in the morning will lift slowly   
   northward in the advance of the surface low. Upstream, another   
   shortwave trough will drop southward along the Pacific coast and   
   evolve into a closed midlevel low across southern CA by the end of   
   the period.   
      
   ...Southern Plains...   
   Scattered storms will be ongoing across parts of the southern Plains   
   later this morning, aided by a modest low-level jet and ascent   
   attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. Initially moderate   
   MUCAPE and effective shear of 40+ kt could support a few strong to   
   locally severe storms during the morning from parts of eastern NM   
   into west/central TX and OK, with a threat of isolated hail and   
   locally gusty winds.   
      
   Convection will persist through the day, resulting in generally   
   modest heating and weakening midlevel lapse rates with time. As a   
   result, while deep-layer shear will remain relatively strong across   
   the warm sector, potential for organized convection downstream or in   
   the wake of morning convection remains somewhat uncertain. Depending   
   on the extent of heating and destabilization, at least some   
   potential for isolated supercells and/or organized clusters could   
   evolve during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of marginally   
   severe hail and locally damaging wind. Some enlargement of low-level   
   hodographs with time could also support a brief tornado threat from   
   parts of central/eastern TX into eastern OK and western AR, if any   
   surface-based supercells can be sustained.   
      
   Farther west, some CAM guidance depicts development of a modestly   
   organized convective line across NM into west TX during the   
   afternoon/evening, in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave   
   trough. This could pose a threat of strong gusts, but it remains   
   quite uncertain as to whether instability will be sufficient to   
   support a severe threat with this scenario.   
      
   ..Dean/Moore.. 11/20/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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