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   ACUS11 KWNS 200552   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 200551=20   
   MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-200745-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2213   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1151 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Southeast Kansas into northeast   
   Oklahoma...southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 200551Z - 200745Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over   
   the next several hours across northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas   
   and into southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. While buoyancy   
   is fairly limited, strong shear may compensate and support a few   
   strong/severe storms.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaics show an uptick in   
   convection across the KS/OK/MO/AR region over the past hour. This   
   comes as isentropic ascent within a diffuse warm frontal zone   
   increases in tandem with a strengthening of 925-850 mb winds noted   
   in upstream VWPs. The warming/moistening in this layer is also   
   supporting a northward expansion of MUCAPE, and while buoyancy   
   profiles remain fairly marginal per recent forecast soundings, this   
   environment has been sufficient for deep convection. Regional VWPs   
   and mesoanalyses continue to show 40-50 knot deep-layer wind shear   
   across the region with favorable hodographs for splitting   
   supercells. The expectation is for transient supercells to emerge   
   and periodically pose a threat for large hail (most likely between 1   
   to 1.75 inches in diameter). Storm interactions and motions along   
   the frontal zone should promote upscale growth into clusters, which   
   should limit the coverage/longevity of the hail threat. As such,   
   watch issuance is not expected.   
      
   ..Moore/Smith.. 11/20/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!97xKnAB44SYd1Md6YHGhmcRaYjmdMaDWApr3Xr2mIuEC3TG42nipgHU-8lS2Ijk-gDA2uj5Ve=   
   D_P-KQGGmOcjcC0sXA$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...   
      
   LAT...LON   36239673 36639709 36989730 37369738 37719729 38029696   
               38239644 38319501 38149382 37659322 37219307 36769306   
               36489320 36249358 36019425 35939549 36019622 36239673=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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