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   AWUS01 KWNH 200542   
   FFGMPD   
   TXZ000-201010-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1233   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1241 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of central TX   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 200540Z - 201010Z   
      
   Summary...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding   
   will be possible over portions of central TX including the Hill   
   Country through 10Z. Localized totals of 2 to 4+ inches may occur   
   over a relatively short period of time.   
      
   Discussion...Regional radar imagery through 0530Z showed widely   
   scattered coverage of thunderstorms over central TX with an   
   increasingly concerning cluster near/south of JCT with only small   
   net-movement over the past hour. The environment over central TX   
   contained anomalous precipitable water values of 1.3 to 1.7 inches   
   and 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (SPC mesoanalysis and area soundings from   
   00Z) with moisture contributions from the tropical eastern Pacific   
   in the mid/upper levels and Gulf of America in the lower levels.   
   0-6 km mean layer winds were a progressive 20-30 kt toward the   
   northeast but sufficient speed shear was present for organized   
   cells and slower storm motions right of the mean wind.   
      
   While larger scale forcing ahead of a strong mid to upper level   
   trough/closed low over the CA/AZ border was still well west of TX,   
   the low level response out ahead of this feature was SSE 925-850   
   mb winds of 20-30 kt with increasing low level moisture values   
   into central TX since Wednesday evening as seen on OSPO LPW   
   imagery in the surface-850 mb layer. Transient axes of low level   
   convergence and upslope flow into the Edwards Plateau are expected   
   to continue to support small clusters of thunderstorms with mean   
   movement off toward the northeast. However, there will likely be   
   areas of upstream convective redevelopment which will allow for   
   training and repeating cells at times. Peak hourly rainfall of 1   
   to 2 inches (locally higher) is expected within SW to NE axes of   
   training with 3-hr totals of 2-4 inches, although idealized   
   training over a particular location has the potential for rainfall   
   totals over 4 inches in 3 hours. Current thinking is that the   
   coverage of flash flooding through 10Z will remain low enough to   
   keep the "flash flooding possible" wording on this message given   
   dry antecedent conditions, but concerns for rapid rises of water   
   will exist across portions of the sensitive Hill Country despite   
   the dry antecedent grounds.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!_LYpBNhMlhdGrOmNgOUQY3aTCioz2NPMkd1VVanuIvyaHF12_R4dS_2zri_aZ5-ZJWhe=   
   ULn-yQhCMPB3_j4eFKk9eD4$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   32119869 31429791 30329826 29749881 29269946=20   
               28930081 29550147 30710103 31759995=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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