TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166845.weather@1:2320/105 2d86530e   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 200355   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 200355=20   
   TXZ000-200630-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2212   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0955 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   Areas affected...a small part of west-central Texas   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 200355Z - 200630Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A few strong storms are expected through early tonight,   
   and isolated large hail occur.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Moderate southwest flow aloft and subtle height rises   
   currently exist over the southern Plains, well east of the main   
   upper trough. While the air mass is moist and unstable, ascent is   
   currently weak. The 00Z DRT sounding shows PWAT values over 1.70"   
   along with MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, and strong upper-level winds.   
   However, objective analysis indicates the winds around 850 mb are   
   difluent, and likely resulting in downward motion. Therefore, there   
   appears to be minimal ascent to support more widespread storms.   
   However, isolated storms are already present from near the San   
   Angelo area southward toward the Rio Grande, and some of this   
   activity may strengthen at times by virtue of the moist air mass and   
   minimal capping. Conditionally, the environment favors hail within   
   the strongest cells, and coverage trends will continue to be   
   monitored.   
      
   ..Jewell/Smith.. 11/20/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!_9NiQY4sdhCdvwmdZncHSBtElhzP8doys8wQkcbhni5mxVH-WQZ5XMIhLoir4UCjWYFXDA6XR=   
   KpGIWoLT0hA4pKT8q8$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...   
      
   LAT...LON   29809960 29180019 28750046 28660078 29000114 29460178   
               29680182 31200086 31440048 31499973 31299913 30969898   
               30469913 29809960=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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