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   ACUS11 KWNS 200234   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 200234=20   
   OKZ000-TXZ000-200430-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2211   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0834 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Northwest Texas into northeast Oklahoma   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 200234Z - 200430Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue   
   to pose a large hail risk through the late evening hours. Overall,   
   the threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch   
   issuance.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours, thunderstorms have gradually   
   increased in coverage from the I-20 corridor in west-central TX to   
   the OKC metro area with several supercell splits noted. While most   
   cells have struggled to maintain intensity, possibly owing to   
   weak/nebulous forcing for ascent and modest buoyancy profiles,   
   storms that have acquired sufficient depth to realize the strong   
   deep-layer shear over the region (40-50 knot 0-6 km BWD noted in   
   regional VWPs) have been capable of severe hail, including very   
   isolated significant (2 inch) hail.=20   
      
   Going forward into the late evening hours, thunderstorm coverage   
   should continue to slowly increase as broad-scale ascent persists   
   and further lifts/erodes a lingering warm layer near 700 mb. This,   
   coupled with increasing isentropic ascent over a warm frontal zone   
   situated along the I-44/I-40 corridor, should help to offset the   
   influence of nocturnal cooling/stabilization and maintain   
   thunderstorm production. The expectation is for somewhat transient   
   supercells capable of periodic intensification to severe limits.   
   Hail remains the primary hazard with hail diameters between 1 to   
   1.75 inches probable, though isolated instances of 2 inch hail   
   appear possible given favorably elongated hodographs. However, given   
   the dispersed and transitory nature of the storms, watch issuance is   
   not expected.   
      
   ..Moore/Smith.. 11/20/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!-x47Pd0qf5yAcaUPUAnaK4co-zJ4_shA54VMvhtukaqpyAX9KuqsSjh9PyzClvQI36vc3UDJ_=   
   bbXWBqRBdMkUpbTfjw$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...   
      
   LAT...LON   32400155 33000110 35269835 35859726 36069619 35979577   
               35859546 35669539 35429543 35049546 34709577 34219635   
               33179860 32659935 32130004 31920053 31850095 31920138   
               32120156 32400155=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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