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   MSGID: 166842.weather@1:2320/105 2d8629ae   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 200059   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 200057   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0657 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   Valid 200100Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND   
   SOUTHERN NM...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across the southern   
   Plains into parts of the Ozarks through tonight. Large hail should   
   be the main threat, but occasional gusty winds and perhaps a tornado   
   may also occur.   
      
   ...Southern Plains into parts of the Ozarks...   
   Widely scattered storms have developed this evening across parts of   
   west-central/northwest TX, generally near and to the south/east of a   
   surface boundary draped from central OK into southwest TX. Gradually   
   increasing ascent associated with an approaching mid/upper-level   
   trough will result in additional storm development through the   
   evening across parts of the southern Plains, where a seasonably   
   moist airmass is in place. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, moderate   
   deep-layer shear, and elongated mid/upper-level hodographs (as noted   
   on regional 00Z soundings) will support isolated supercells with a   
   threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. A brief tornado will   
   also be possible, especially across southwest TX later this evening,   
   where backed surface winds and a modest nocturnal low-level jet will   
   lead to some enhancement of effective SRH.   
      
   Overnight, a somewhat separate zone of primarily elevated storm   
   development is possible from northern OK/southeast KS into parts of   
   the Ozarks, within a low-level warm-advection regime. MUCAPE of   
   near/above 1000 J/kg and sufficient effective shear could support an   
   isolated hail threat with this activity.   
      
   ...Southwest...   
   Multiple storm clusters may continue through much of the evening   
   into late tonight across parts of AZ/NM, in association with the   
   upper trough moving across the Southwest. MUCAPE will generally   
   remain weak (near or below 500 J/kg), but favorable shear and   
   cooling temperatures aloft could still support small to near-severe   
   hail and locally gusty winds with the strongest storms.   
      
   ..Dean.. 11/20/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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