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   ACUS11 KWNS 192304   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 192303=20   
   OKZ000-TXZ000-200100-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2210   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0503 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Northwest Texas into far southern Oklahoma   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 192303Z - 200100Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in   
   intensity and coverage through the evening hours. Isolated to   
   scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, and will mainly pose a   
   large hail threat.   
      
   DISCUSSION...GOES imagery over the past 40 minutes reveals a pair of   
   deeper convective updrafts along/north of the I-20 corridor with   
   shallower/weaker cells closer to the DFW metro area. This comes as   
   ascent ahead of a large-scale upper wave gradually overspreads the   
   region where capping has become very weak/negligible owing to warm   
   surface temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Broad-scale   
   ascent will continue to increase through the evening as the wave   
   shifts east, resulting in a gradual increase in thunderstorm   
   coverage through the evening across northern TX into the Red River   
   Valley. Modest mid-level lapse rates will likely favor a slow uptick   
   in convective intensity, but strong mid/high-level flow will provide   
   adequate deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the   
   potential for splitting supercells once storms become sufficiently   
   deep. Given weak flow in the lowest few kilometers (per regional   
   VWPs) the primary risk should be large hail (most likely 1 to 2   
   inches), though sporadic severe winds are also possible. It remains   
   somewhat unclear how many intense storms will emerge across northern   
   TX/southern OK due to the potential for destructive storm   
   interactions/upscale growth; however, this region may be the   
   relatively best corridor for severe storms over the next few hours.   
   Watch issuance is not imminent, but trends will be monitored.   
      
   ..Moore/Smith.. 11/19/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4LmHl4VftogOIfoClZX4_ovueA_bVUKjNMy40q2aF7t6jUdUq8_ratRaZSdRTSb9YYsyxp_E8=   
   GQCodIureIde-bOASw$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...   
      
   LAT...LON   32320015 32340030 32460048 32710066 33020066 33280042   
               34219901 34369860 34389833 34429791 34249694 34129672   
               33899646 33599636 33299640 33019658 32769690 32649732   
               32259977 32320015=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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