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   ACUS01 KWNS 192002   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 192001   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0201 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   Valid 192000Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the southern Plains   
   into parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into tonight.   
   Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional gusty winds and   
   perhaps a tornado may also occur.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
   The forecast remains on track and only minor adjustments were made   
   with this update. In parts of north TX, the latest visible satellite   
   imagery is showing initial signs of deepening boundary-layer cumulus   
   in the vicinity of an east/west-oriented quasi-stationary surface   
   boundary. Some high-resolution guidance depicts isolated   
   thunderstorm development in the general area during the late   
   afternoon/early evening time frame. Around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and   
   an elongated hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear) would   
   conditionally support a supercell or two if storms can initiate.   
   However, weak/minimal forcing for ascent (both synoptic and   
   mesoscale) limits confidence in the initiation and sustenance of   
   storms during the afternoon hours. Given the conditionality, held   
   off on an upgrade to Slight Risk at this time, though a locally   
   favorable corridor for large hail is possible.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 11/19/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025/   
      
   ...Southern Plains to Ozarks...   
   A low-latitude mid/upper-level will move slowly eastward across the   
   lower Colorado River Valley/Southwest and northwest Mexico today   
   into tonight. Enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist   
   across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and vicinity   
   through the period, although height falls will generally not reach   
   these locales until tonight. An increasingly moist low-level airmass   
   across south/central Texas this morning will advance slowly   
   northward in tandem with a surface warm front. Weak lee cyclogenesis   
   should occur this evening and overnight across west Texas as   
   large-scale ascent preceding the slow-moving upper trough eventually   
   overspreads the southern Plains. Nebulous forcing for much of the   
   day casts significant uncertainty on convective development across   
   the warm sector until later this evening and overnight.   
      
   But it appears probable that thunderstorms will gradually increase   
   in coverage this evening into early Thursday morning across the   
   southern Plains with the approach of the upper trough. Modest   
   low-level warm advection in the vicinity of the warm front and a   
   developing dryline across west Texas may also aid in convective   
   development this evening. Most guidance continues to show moderate   
   instability in place along/near these boundaries, with modestly   
   steepened mid-level lapse rates present. This favorable   
   thermodynamic environment, coupled with moderate to strong   
   deep-layer shear given the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft, should   
   promote organized updrafts.   
      
   Current expectations are for a mix of supercells and multicells to   
   develop and pose an isolated threat for mainly large hail. Where   
   convection can remain surface-based this evening, some threat for   
   occasional gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two should also   
   exist, although the coverage and likelihood is uncertain. With time,   
   updraft interactions/mergers should result in a messy convective   
   mode, especially with elevated thunderstorms to the north of the   
   warm front. Still, at least some risk for severe hail may persist   
   for much of the overnight/early Thursday morning period with this   
   activity as it spreads east-northeastward across the southern Plains   
   and parts of the Ozarks. Additional development should occur late   
   tonight/early Thursday across eastern New Mexico into northwest   
   Texas with hail possible.   
      
   ...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...   
   Cool mid-level temperatures will be in place over the Southwest as   
   the upper trough progresses slowly eastward. Cooling aloft and cloud   
   breaks will allow for modest diurnal destabilization coincident with   
   strong deep-layer wind profiles. A few strong to locally severe   
   storms could occur with gusty winds and some hail.   
      
   $$   
      
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