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   FOUS11 KWBC 191858   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   158 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   Valid 00Z Thu Nov 20 2025 - 00Z Sun Nov 23 2025   
      
   ...Southern & Central Rockies...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   An upper low tracking through the Desert Southwest today will   
   sharpen up and take on an increasingly negative tilt over northern   
   Mexico tonight and into Thursday morning. Healthy 500mb PVA and an   
   influx of moisture (courtesy of IVT values topping 400 kg/m/s that   
   exceed the 97.5 climatological percentile per ECMWF SATs) will   
   be the key ingredients in a blossoming area of precipitation over   
   AZ, NM, southern UT, and southern CO. Temperatures aloft are not   
   overly cold and the antecedent air-mass is generally mild, thus   
   forcing most of the impending snowfall to occur in the more   
   remote/higher terrain of the Southern Rockies.   
      
   As the upper trough reaches the Southern Plains Thursday night,   
   the 500mb trough will become inverted with a narrow tongue of   
   easterly upslope flow still producing a persistent light-to-   
   moderate snow in the forecast into Friday morning. Snow levels for   
   the event may dip as low as 6,000ft in parts of the Wasatch and as   
   far south and west as Zion Nat'l Park, but the bulk of the more   
   impactful snowfall totals will reside above 7,000ft in the   
   mountains surrounding Las Vegas and the southern Wasatch, above   
   8,000ft in the Mogollon Rim and Gila Mountains of AZ, above   
   9,000ft in the San Juans and Sangre De Cristo, and above 10,000ft   
   along the CO Front Range. WPC probabilities show most of these   
   ranges above the listed elevations are likely to see at least 4"   
   of snowfall, but it will be in these mountains' more   
   remote/elevated reaches that sport low-to-moderate chances   
   (30-50%) for snowfall totals >8" through Friday.   
      
   ...California...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   As this lead upper-trough tracks towards the South-Central U.S. on   
   Thursday, the next Pacific upper-level trough is hot on its heels   
   as it dives southward along the CA coast. A progressive system, it   
   will produce a swath of accumulating snowfall at/above 5,000ft   
   from the Trinity/Siskiyou mountains of northern CA on south along   
   the Sierra Nevada and even the peaks of the Transverse and   
   Peninsular ranges. The heaviest snowfall for the Sierra Nevada is   
   expected on Thursday with snowfall tapering off by Friday morning.   
   WPC probabilities depict moderate-to-high chances probabilities   
   (50-8%) for snowfall totals >6" in the central and southern Sierra   
   Nevada with localized totals approaching 12" in the >10,000ft   
   peaks.   
      
   Snow will pick up in intensity over the peaks of the San Gabriel   
   and San Bernadino mountains starting Thursday afternoon and lasting   
   through Friday morning. Snow should taper off in the peaks of the   
   Transverse and Peninsular ranges by Saturday morning. Snow levels   
   are likely to be as low as 6,000ft with minor accumulations   
   possible around that elevation, but the heaviest snowfall is likely   
   to occur above 7,000ft where WPC probabilities show moderate-to-   
   high chances (50-80%) for snowfall totals >6" and even low-to-   
   moderate chances (30-50%) for localized amounts >12" in the peaks   
   of the San Bernadino mountains.   
      
      
   The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than   
   10 percent.   
      
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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