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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1123 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern   
   Plains tomorrow (Thursday). An instance or two of severe wind, hail,   
   or a brief tornado may occur.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   The upper-air pattern across much of the western and central U.S.   
   tomorrow (Thursday) will be characterized by broad mid-level   
   troughing, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotating around   
   the broader scale cyclonic flow aloft. One upper trough will pivot   
   southeastward along the CA coastline with cooler temperatures aloft,   
   supporting isolated lightning flashes. A second mid-level shortwave   
   trough will eject into the Plains during the day, encouraging a   
   continued northward flux of rich low-level moisture amid a warm-air   
   advection regime. Strong forcing for ascent will promote an increase   
   in coverage of thunderstorms through the period across the southern   
   Plains as the mid-level trough overspreads the region. Despite   
   expected meager instability, strong vertical wind shear will   
   accompany the mid-level trough, which may support isolated strong to   
   potentially severe storms.   
      
   ...Southern Plains...   
   The aforementioned broad upper troughing will support a relatively   
   prolonged low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime, where   
   low-level confluence will support widespread showers and at least   
   scattered thunderstorms at the start of the period (12Z Thursday),   
   from central TX to central OK. Given expected widespread cloudiness   
   and mediocre mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy should be quite weak   
   initially. However, with daytime heating, some boundary-layer mixing   
   (albeit modest), should help boost MLCAPE to several hundred J/kg.   
   While deep-layer vertical flow/shear should remain largely   
   unidirectional, some of the latest guidance suggests that slightly   
   stronger flow aloft will overspread the warm sector compared to   
   earlier guidance members. As such, considerable size/elongation of   
   the hodographs will result in 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear,   
   with some backing of the low-level winds possible closer to the   
   surface low in northern TX into OK. While this shear profile would   
   support severe potential, the presence of widespread clouds,   
   training thunderstorms, and poor tropospheric lapse rates (and   
   resultant buoyancy) should limit severe potential.   
      
   The current thinking is that a few stronger thunderstorms will form   
   within a confluence axis just ahead of the aforementioned training   
   thunderstorms in central OK to central TX by mid to late afternoon.   
   Given favorable vertical wind shear, multicells and supercells will   
   be possible initially, before unidirectional flow encourages the   
   development of a loosely organized line of storms. Discrete storms   
   will have the best potential for producing an instance or two of   
   marginally severe wind or hail. A brief tornado is also possible   
   with the storms that are closer to the surface low over northern TX   
   to central/eastern OK. Since most of the available buoyancy will   
   likely be driven by boundary-layer heating, the severe threat is   
   expected to wane after dark.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 11/19/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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