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   ACUS01 KWNS 191241   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 191240   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0640 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   Valid 191300Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible across the southern   
   Plains into parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into   
   tonight. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional gusty   
   winds and perhaps a tornado or two may also occur.   
      
   ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...   
   A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the lower   
   CO River Valley and Southwest today into tonight. Enhanced   
   southwesterly mid-level flow will persist across much of the   
   southern Plains into the Ozarks and vicinity through the period. A   
   moist low-level airmass in place across south/central TX this   
   morning will advance slowly northward across north TX and OK/AR in   
   tandem with a surface warm front. Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur   
   this evening and overnight across west TX as large-scale ascent   
   preceding the slow-moving upper trough eventually overspreads the   
   southern Plains. Nebulous forcing for much of the day casts   
   significant uncertainty on convective development across the warm   
   sector until later this evening.   
      
   Still, it appears likely that thunderstorms will gradually increase   
   in coverage this evening into early Thursday morning across the   
   southern Plains with the approach of the upper trough. Modest   
   low-level warm advection in the vicinity of the warm front and a   
   developing dryline across west TX may also aid in convective   
   development this evening. Most guidance continues to show moderate   
   instability in place along/near these boundaries, with modestly   
   steepened mid-level lapse rates present. This favorable   
   thermodynamic environment, coupled with moderate to strong   
   deep-layer shear given the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft, should   
   promote organized updrafts.   
      
   Current expectations are for a mix of supercells and multicells to   
   develop and pose an isolated threat for mainly large hail. Where   
   convection can remain surface-based this evening, some threat for   
   occasional gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two should also   
   exist. With time, updraft interactions/mergers should result in a   
   messy convective mode, especially with elevated thunderstorms to the   
   north of the warm front. Still, at least some risk for severe hail   
   may persist for much of the overnight/early Thursday morning period   
   with this activity as it spreads east-northeastward across the   
   southern Plains and parts of the Ozarks.   
      
   ...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...   
   Cool mid-level temperatures will be in place over the Southwest as   
   the upper trough progresses slowly eastward. Weak instability may   
   develop across parts of southeast AZ/southwest NM and vicinity with   
   filtered daytime heating. While small hail could occur with the   
   stronger cores that develop this afternoon across this region,   
   modest low-level moisture and buoyancy should limit the overall   
   severe threat.   
      
   ..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/19/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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