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   ACUS48 KWNS 190908   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 190906   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0306 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   Valid 221200Z - 271200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Most medium-range forecast guidance is consistent in developing an   
   eastward-progressing upper low and attendant trough from the   
   Southwest into the southern/central Plains Day 4/Sat into Day 6/Mon.   
   Strong surface high pressure in the wake of an earlier cold frontal   
   passage in the Day 3/Fri period will extend from the southern Plains   
   into the Southeast, suppressing any deeper northward Gulf moisture   
   return until overnight Day 5/Sun when the upper trough ejects into   
   the High Plains. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop   
   across southern into central TX late Sunday into Monday as a surface   
   cold front develops east across the southern Plains and stronger   
   southwesterly deep-layer flow overlaps returning Gulf moisture.   
   However, it is unclear if surface-based storms will develop given   
   the overnight nature of storm development and potential capping.   
   Severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks as   
   details regarding moisture return and timing of convection become   
   better resolved.   
      
   The upper trough will progress east/northeast across the Midwest and   
   Southeast late in the forecast period, with most guidance suggesting   
   broad, low-amplitude troughing developing across much of the CONUS   
   east of the Rockies by midweek. Some severe potential could persist   
   into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South vicinity on Day 7/Tue as upper   
   trough and surface low continue east, but large spread is present in   
   medium-range guidance regarding the evolution of the surface low and   
   associated pre-frontal warm sector, resulting in low predictability.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 11/19/2025   
      
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