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   ACUS03 KWNS 190803   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 190801   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0201 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast into the   
   Tennessee Valley and central/southern Appalachians on Friday. Severe   
   thunderstorm potential appears limited.   
      
   ...Texas Coast to the Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity...   
      
   A shortwave upper trough will develop east from the southern Plains   
   to the central Appalachians vicinity on Friday. A belt of enhanced   
   westerly flow associated with this feature will overspread the   
   Mid-South and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will   
   develop southeast across east TX and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys.   
   Forecast guidance varies with the progression of the front, but the   
   expectation is for the boundary to extend from the central   
   Appalachians west/southwest to the TX coast by Saturday morning.   
      
   Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across east TX   
   along the cold front, and across portions of the Mid-South vicinity   
   within a warm advection regime. While boundary layer moisture will   
   be greater than normal for this time of year, boundary-parallel flow   
   will likely result in training convection, limiting stronger   
   destabilization. Furthermore, widespread cloudiness, poor lapse   
   rates and areas of precipitation downstream from the surface   
   boundary will further limit destabilization. While a couple of   
   strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the   
   Mid-South and TN Valley, overall severe potential appears limited. A   
   strong storm or two also could occur across southeast TX near the   
   cold front, but weak large-scale ascent, modest vertical shear, and   
   warm midlevel temperatures should temper severe potential.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 11/19/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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