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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS02 KWNS 190619   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 190617   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1217 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on   
   Thursday. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited at this   
   time. Isolated thunderstorms may extend into the Ohio and Tennessee   
   Valleys as well, though this activity is not expected to be severe.   
      
   ...Southern Plains...   
      
   An upper trough oriented from the Great Basin into northwest Mexico   
   will pivot east/northeast into the southern Plains on Thursday. As   
   the shortwave trough ejects across the Plains, deamplification of   
   this system is forecast. Nevertheless, moderate deep-layer   
   southwesterly flow will overspread the OK/TX into the Ozark Plateau,   
   with forecast guidance indicating 30-50 kt 850-700 mb flow,   
   increasing to 60-70 kt at 500 mb.   
      
   Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overlap a moist boundary layer   
   from central into eastern TX/OK and eastward into the Ozarks and   
   Lower MS Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected   
   to be ongoing across the southern Plains early Thursday in a   
   persistent warm advection regime ahead of the ejecting trough. By   
   evening, a Pacific front is forecast to move across western TX,   
   becoming oriented from western OK into central TX by 12z Friday.   
      
   Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be remarkable given the   
   deamplifying upper trough, and deep-layer flow will remain veered.   
   This is likely to support training convection through the day and   
   into the evening, casting doubt on how much destabilization can   
   occur due to muted heating and limited lapse rates. Furthermore,   
   forecast soundings continue to indicate warm midlevels, further   
   influencing a sub-par thermodynamic environment. The best overlap of   
   warmer boundary layer temperatures, deep Gulf moisture, and stronger   
   vertical shear may exist during the late afternoon and evening   
   across parts of central TX, but this remains highly uncertain. A   
   marginal (level 1 of 5) risk may become necessary in subsequent   
   outlooks, but large uncertainty precludes probabilities at this   
   time.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 11/19/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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