TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166817.weather@1:2320/105 2d851ddd   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 190557   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 190555   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1155 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025   
      
   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE   
   SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OZARKS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern Plains into   
   western parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into   
   tonight.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A deep upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the   
   Southwest later today into tonight. Downstream of this system, weak   
   lee troughing will become established across the southern/central   
   High Plains. A surface boundary initially draped from north TX into   
   the ArkLaTex will move northward as a warm front, with rich   
   boundary-layer moisture spreading into parts of southern/central   
   OK/AR during the afternoon and evening.   
      
   ...Southern Plains into western parts of the Ozarks...   
   A broad region of at least isolated severe potential remains evident   
   across the southern Plains. Within this region, one or more areas of   
   locally greater hail potential may evolve, but confidence in the   
   details is low at this time.   
      
   Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop dewpoints in the 60s to   
   near 70 F will result in moderate destabilization along/south of the   
   warm front by late afternoon. Large-scale ascent appears rather   
   nebulous into early evening, but isolated storm development cannot   
   be ruled out by late afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the   
   warm front. Storm coverage will increase through the evening into   
   late tonight from southwest into northwest TX and southern OK, as   
   ascent related to the approaching trough begins to overspread the   
   region.   
      
   Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for at least occasional storm   
   organization, with isolated supercells possible. Hail is expected to   
   be the most common hazard, though isolated strong/damaging gusts may   
   also occur. Regarding tornado potential, a secondary low-level   
   moisture surge (with dewpoints approaching 70 F) could result in a   
   brief tornado threat with any evening supercells across southwest   
   TX. Elsewhere, a nonzero tornado threat could also evolve with any   
   persistent supercells near the warm front, but this scenario remains   
   uncertain due to generally modest low-level flow/shear.   
      
   A separate area of primarily elevated storm development will be   
   possible late tonight from southeast KS/northeast OK into   
   central/southern MO. MUCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg and   
   sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat   
   with the strongest storms in this regime.   
      
   ...Southeast AZ into southwest NM...   
   Widespread convection is expected later today from southeast AZ into   
   southwest/south-central NM, in response to the eastward-moving upper   
   trough/low. Buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited heating,   
   which may tend to suppress the organized severe threat, but strong   
   deep-layer shear could support occasional storm organization.   
   Confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time, but   
   stronger heating/destabilization than currently expected could   
   result in some severe potential.   
      
   ..Dean/Moore.. 11/19/2025   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 206 300 307 317   
   SEEN-BY: 229/400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364   
   SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426