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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   801 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Wed Nov 19 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN   
   ARIZONA, FAR SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN   
   NEVADA...   
      
   ...Southwest U.S...   
   A Slight risk was maintained for portions of western AZ and   
   immediate adjacent areas of southeast CA and southern NV. A general   
   decrease in instability is expected to result in a downward trend   
   in convective coverage overnight. However, the upper low will   
   remain to the west providing broad synoptic ascent and low level   
   moisture transport will also persist. A few pockets of instability   
   should linger as well...which should be enough to allow for   
   isolated linear convective segments to persist. This convection   
   will continue to locally train within the deep layer southerly=20   
   flow, with a few instances of 1"/hr rainfall possible. So while=20   
   the overall coverage and magnitude of the flash flood risk should=20   
   be on the decline overnight, localized instances of flash flooding   
   will remain possible.   
      
   ...Ohio Valley...   
   We will maintain a Marginal risk across KY into northern TN.   
   Scattered convection should continue ahead of a cold front posing=20   
   a very localized flash flood risk. In general cells will either be   
   quick enough moving or not producing high enough rates to result=20   
   in flash flooding. However some stronger cells, especially on the=20   
   southwest flank of the risk area where instability is greater,=20   
   could locally produce 1-2"/hr rainfall. Rainfall rates are lower=20   
   on the northeast side of the risk area, but more antecedent rain=20   
   and a bit more persistence of the rain here could still pose a very   
   isolated threat.   
      
   Chenard   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Wed Nov 19 2025 - 12Z Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, THE CONCHO VALLEY, & THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...   
      
   The upper level trough moving across the Southwest US continues to   
   allow for sufficient coverage of scattered showers and embedded   
   thunderstorms into Wednesday across these areas for a Marginal Risk   
   threat level.  Localized flash flooding could continue to be a   
   concern.   
      
   Across the Southern Plains, low level-moisture will be drawn   
   northward with precipitable water values rising into the 1.5-1.75"   
   range, abnormally high for mid-November. When combined with   
   500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 850 hPa inflow of ~25 kts, the   
   development of organized convection late Wednesday night into   
   early Thursday morning is becoming increasingly likely in and near   
   South-Central TX. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local totals to   
   5" are anticipated early Thursday morning. This potential led to a   
   new Slight Risk which was coordinated with the EWX/New Braunfels   
   and SJT/San Angelo forecast offices. Its footprint was most in line   
   with the 06z REFS 30%+ chance of 3"+ amounts.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Thu Nov 20 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSOURI...   
      
   ...Southern Plains...   
   The flow aloft backs over portions of Texas and Oklahoma and   
   becomes increasingly diffluent Thursday morning as an upper trough   
   makes its way from the southern Great Basin into and across the   
   southern Rockies. This configuration aloft with increasingly moist   
   flow in the low levels ahead of a surface cold front will foster an   
   environment producing excessive rainfall by means of intense   
   rainfall rates by individual storms and by training of cells/repeat   
   convection. The axis of highest precipitable water values...   
   1.5-1.75"...sets up over the eastern half of Texas into   
   southeasternmost Oklahoma and Arkansas, which is well above   
   average for mid- November. Localized rainfall amounts up to 2.5" in   
   an hour with additional local totals of 5" possible within this   
   set up which would result in scattered instances of flash flooding.   
   Changes to the risk areas were mostly confined with some paring   
   back of the Slight across OK.   
      
      
   ...California...   
   Maintained a Marginal Risk area from continuity for portions of   
   coastal Southern California as the next area of low pressure   
   produces another round of on-shore flow of moisture and associated   
   rainfall Thursday into early Friday. Rainfall amounts at this point   
   look to be pretty modest but will be falling on areas where   
   antecedent conditions have been wet for the better part of 5 days.   
   That may result in additional localized flooding on Thursday or   
   Thursday night.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-iuiA_u2iaE4Rk23JRNFMJAxu75bljZtqtaXIRIxnaQP=   
   4KhdhUynfYUyAmQsIC3BWkL9bjtNVULlj2ZSVOhS3EqBew8$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-iuiA_u2iaE4Rk23JRNFMJAxu75bljZtqtaXIRIxnaQP=   
   4KhdhUynfYUyAmQsIC3BWkL9bjtNVULlj2ZSVOhSNioOCq0$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-iuiA_u2iaE4Rk23JRNFMJAxu75bljZtqtaXIRIxnaQP=   
   4KhdhUynfYUyAmQsIC3BWkL9bjtNVULlj2ZSVOhSTjx3-Ec$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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