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   MSGID: 166815.weather@1:2320/105 2d84d81c   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 190059   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 190057   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0657 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025   
      
   Valid 190100Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF   
   NORTHWEST TN...SOUTHWEST KY...FAR SOUTHEAST MO...FAR SOUTHERN IL...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered strong to locally severe storms remain possible this   
   evening across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio   
   Valley.   
      
   ...Mid MS to lower OH Valleys...   
   A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving quickly eastward toward   
   the Lower Great Lakes region this evening. A rather strong low-level   
   jet associated with this system will maintain elevated convection   
   for much of the evening across parts of eastern KY/TN. MUCAPE of   
   500-1000 J/kg and moderate effective shear will continue to support   
   a few strong elevated storms with a threat of isolated hail.   
      
   Farther southwest, moderate surface-based buoyancy remains in place   
   from western KY/TN into AR and far southeast MO/southern IL, along   
   and ahead of a cold front. While ascent associated with the   
   departing shortwave trough will become increasingly displaced to the   
   north and east, strong deep-layer shear will support supercell   
   potential with ongoing convection through the evening, as storms   
   move east-southeastward. Any sustained supercells could pose at   
   least an isolated threat of hail, locally damaging wind, and   
   possibly a tornado. Late this evening, increasing CINH should result   
   in a general weakening trend, though a strong storm or two cannot be   
   ruled out into the early overnight hours.   
      
   ...Southwest...   
   Scattered storms will continue this evening across parts of AZ into   
   southeast CA/NV, in association with a mid/upper-level low. Buoyancy   
   will remain modest at best, but sufficient deep-layer shear could   
   support briefly strong storms through the evening.   
      
   ..Dean.. 11/19/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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